Quantitative Research (QR) #2: Stratagem Football Model Performance

Summary:

A reasonable strategy has been found to choose bets based on odds and model value, this gives a return of +0.80% per unit liability on ~3000 bets across 7 leagues in the top 5 European domestic league systems.

Method

The backtests have been run using the trading system framework. The following match odd were considered:

• Betfair over/under and Asian handicap markets

• Match kick off: 1st October 2014 – 1st October 2015

• Leagues: EngPr, EngCh, GerBL1, GerBL2, SpaPr, FraL1, ItaSA

For each suitable fixture the odds were found 5 minutes before kick-off. The (previously calculated) model fair odds prediction for each bet is calculated and the back and lay values are calculated as (odds/fair odds) − 1.

A bet is placed on the back side if the back value is > 0, a bet is placed on the lay side if the lay value is < 0. Note that this strategy is refined in the post-run analysis.

Strategy

On a brief analysis of the results for EngPr in the period 1st October 2014 – 1st July 2015 the following strategy was determined:

• Back bet if back value ∈ [0.0, 0.1] and odds ∈ [1.6, 2.0]

• Lay bet if lay value ∈ [−0.1, 0.0] and odds ∈ [2.0, 2.5]

Staking is simply 1 unit of liability per bet.

Backtesting-results2

Back/Lay Odds Range PnL/Unit Number of bets
Lay 2.0-2.5 +0.23% 1886
Back 1.6-2.0 +1.66% 1277