Analyst Data Part II: Why is it valuable?

Yesterday we discussed what the Analyst Data offered in the StrataBet Invest subscription is, but today we explain why it is valuable.

EPL-2014-15-Present_Conversion-Rate-per-Chance-Type

This graph from Part I shows the proportionality of chances in the English Premier League from the beginning of 2014/15, in addition to the conversion rates of those chances versus the “Shots on Target” metric found in the wider media.

We highlighted that the relationship of Great Chances, Good Chances and Attempts is almost perfectly linear.

This is important because it demonstrates how chance data can be used to calculate the “fair outcome” of a fixture almost instantaneously.

Take the basic Match Data from a recent Premier League match between Chelsea and Southampton:

AnalystDataIIa

The statistics here give the impression of an even contest, which Chelsea possibly shaded. A fair assumption would be that this match ended in a 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 home win, or that they were “unluckily” held to a draw at the very least.

Crucially, the Analyst Data presents a very different story:

AnalystDataIIb

It shows that Chelsea were extremely inefficient and that Southampton executed their game plan perfectly, which is a much truer reflection of the contest.

Knowing the conversion rates of Great Chances, Good Chances and Attempts a fair assumption would be that this match ended 0-2 and that Chelsea would have been “lucky” to have achieved a draw. This is much closer to the truth, as Southampton actually won 1-3.

This is just one significant value-add of the StrataBet Invest data. On Monday we will highlight two more ways to leverage it for trading and modelling in Analyst Data Part III: How do I use it?