Analyst Data Part III: How do I use it?

By this stage we know what Analyst Data is and why it is valuable, but you might now be wondering, “how do I use it?”

To answer this question we asked two of our company directors to explain how Analyst Data helps them in their day-to-day work at Stratagem Technologies:

Andreas Koukorinis (Head of Trading)
StrataBet Invest data helps us develop insights that are directly incorporated into our trading strategies. The collection of this data is specifically focused for trading, not just ad-hoc mathematical analysis.

That means that our analysts take into consideration those variables that are directly related to the outcome of specific situations. We believe that without granular understanding of the quality of certain variables (such as shots), cause and effect will be confused (such as the comparison between shots that generate goals and chances that generate goals).

Some of our ideas are related to the medium or long-term performance of teams and how to exploit them in the markets. We believe that by breaking down the drivers of performance (such as chance creation or attacking efficiency), we can help identify situations where teams will revert to their long-term performance level and exploit mispricing in the market.

The easiest way to explain this is by constructing a factor driven “fair score” that will neutralise the effect of chance in the long run. There will be periods where chance will allow teams to experience exceptional positive or negative results, but by incorporating this type of data into our trading framework we can quickly identify them.

We believe that there will be a market-shift in using this type of data, which is part of the reason we are investing heavily to develop the framework of data collection fused with human expertise.

Dan Edwards (Head of Modelling)
The final score of a football match tells us what happened and is often, directly or indirectly, what we are trying to predict.

Unfortunately football’s low-scoring nature means that the outcome informs very little about how the match developed. Was the result fair? Was the winning team lucky?

We can begin to answer these types of questions by introducing more data, such as shots or cards, but ideally we require something more insightful.

The Analyst Data offered by StrataBet Invest measures how successfully the two teams created/denied goal scoring opportunities and allows us to mitigate the role that luck played in our analysis.

This type of information is invaluable for the modelling of football matches as it highlights teams that are being under or over-rewarded in match results relative to the level of their play:

Actual-vs-Fair-Points2