Weekend Review – 29/11/16

Highlights

English Premier League
Chelsea 2-1 Tottenham Hotspur (Saturday 5.30pm)
Our feeling on the biggest game of the weekend was that the market had priced it perfectly, which was no great surprise. However, the lines of -0.75 on Chelsea and 2.75 goals proved to be almost perfect with the Fair Score matching the actual score of 2-1 and justifying our decision to steer clear. Tottenham were handed their first defeat of the season by their bogey team, although the absences of Alderweireld, Lamela and Rose must be acknowledged, and Chelsea finally conceded but further strengthened their claims for the title with another relentless display full of determination.

Conte is moulding the team in his own image and nobody has benefitted more than Moses or Pedro, who were both on the scoresheet here. The right side of the team is functioning beautifully and was able to take full advantage of Spurs’ weakness down that flank. The hosts fought back from an early concession to Eriksen and managed to limit their visitors to nothing better than a Fairly Good chance (~8% conversion) in the game, while at the other end they just about created enough to be worth their two goals, with the wing-backs again getting some notable chances in the box.

Recommendation: N/A
Actual Outcome: 0
Fair Outcome: 0

French Ligue 1
Olympique Lyonnais 1-2 PSG (Sunday 7.45pm)
The marquee fixture in France did not disappoint and pre-match we had suggested that PSG -0.5 looked fair enough on ability, which proved to be the case. However, our real liking was the Over 2.75 on the goals line due to the attacking intent of both sides, which was just about covered thanks to Cavani’s 81st minute winner. On the balance of play there were enough chances to justify a half win here, though PSG were fairly unconvincing once more.

The champions seem to have regressed under Emery and are undoubtedly missing Ibrahimovic’s presence, while Di Maria was also a loss here too, but they were worthy of the win after excelling in the 0 game state but getting sloppy at +1. This has happened more than once this season and marks a sea change from 2015/16, when they would add more goals before easing off. For Lyon it was same old, same old, with their defence not good enough to carry the load in games where they do not create enough to score twice.

Recommendation: Over 2.75
Actual Outcome: +0.5
Fair Outcome: +0.5

German Bundesliga 1
Bayern Munchen 2-1 Bayer Leverkusen (Saturday 5.30pm)
Bayern took a fully deserved 2-1 win here, and such was their overall control of the game in the second half they could even have an argument for winning by two. In the end our preference for the Over 3 instead of Leverkusen +1.5 proved to be a little misguided as we got a push rather than a full win, but the fact that it could quite easily have gone 3-1 meant that we were happy to be out of the handicap trading in-play.

Ultimately both of these teams are hard to trust on recent form, but with Bayern now able to focus on the league until the break then we expect their performances to improve in terms of consistency. Leverkusen will continue to be Leverkusen and though it seems a long way back from here, we still would not rule them out for another top three finish just yet.

Recommendation: Over 3
Actual Outcome: 0
Fair Outcome: 0

Italian Serie A
Internazionale 4-2 Fiorentina (Monday 8pm)
A superb game punctuated by poor refereeing decisions that often went against the visitors was our biggest miss of the weekend, with Fiorentina never looking likely to beat the +0.5 handicap. Inter came out of the blocks firing and were amazingly 3-0 up after just 19 minutes, making a mockery of the 2.5 goal line that we thought had looked a “little low” in the early preview. Thankfully some late team news meant we traded the overs ourselves, but this was definitely one that got away on Friday afternoon. Inter still have issues at the back but the new coach is making a big impact and they could be an interesting outside trade for top three in Serie A at this stage of the campaign.

Recommendation: Fiorentina +0.5
Actual Outcome: -1
Fair Outcome: -1

Dutch Eredivisie
Heerenveen 0-1 Ajax (Sunday 1.30pm)
In the end the market got this goal line spot on, with the Fair Score being somewhere between 0-2 and 0-3 for Ajax. Schaars proved to be a huge miss for Heerenveen, as expected, who never managed to create anything better than a Fairly Good chance. The visitors, on the other hand, had five Great opportunities and many more openings besides, being worth more than their single goal victory. Heerenveen were thankful to goalkeeper Mulder for a virtuoso performance, though Ajax still drew level with Feyenoord at the top after they dropped points in a tricky away game at Utrecht.

Recommendation: Over 2.5
Actual Outcome: -1
Fair Outcome: -1

Ones to Watch

Turkish Super Lig
Besiktas 1-1 Istanbul Basaksehir (Saturday 4pm)
This was the most incorrect line of the weekend and Basaksehir comfortably beat it, the Fair Score giving 1-1 verging on 1-2. They had a goal softly ruled out at the end and were much the better side in the 0 game state, though invited too much pressure when ahead.

Recommendation: Istanbul Basaksehir +1
Actual Outcome: +1
Fair Outcome: +1

Spanish Primera Division
Real Sociedad 1-1 Barcelona (Sunday 7.45pm)
This did indeed prove to be a nightmare away fixture for Barcelona, who were actually a little fortunate to escape with a draw. Sociedad had the better chances and attacked more frequently, doing another big favour to Real Madrid and continuing their hex over the Catalan giants at this venue.

Recommendation: Real Sociedad +1.5
Actual Outcome: +1
Fair Outcome: +1

French Ligue 1
Monaco 4-0 Olympique Marseille (Saturday 4.10pm)
The home side made the absolute most of their shooting opportunities, managing to hit four goals despite only registering one Superb, one Great and one Very Good chance. Marseille did enough to score, with a Fair Score of 3-1 meaning that our suggestion of an Under 3 game was off.

Recommendation: Under 3
Actual Outcome: -1
Fair Outcome: -1

Swiss Super League
Sion 1-2 Basel (Sunday 3pm)
This was one of those unusual games where our Fair Score was the inverse of the actual result, with Basel’s late winner being offside and Sion creating much the better opportunities over the course of the contest. Either way, 2.75 goals did prove to be a touch short in reality.

Recommendation: Over 2.75
Actual Outcome: +0.5
Fair Outcome: +0.5

English Premier League
Southampton 1-0 Everton (Sunday 4.30pm)
The biggest surprise here was that there was just one goal scored, though we can have no complaints with a loss on Everton +0.5. Koeman’s side were second best in every department, and while they deserved a goal it could easily be argued that the hosts deserved two or three.

Recommendation: Everton +0.5
Actual Outcome: -1
Fair Outcome: -1

9 Recommendations
Total Actual Outcome: -1
Total Fair Outcome: -1

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