English Premier League
Liverpool 2-0 Tottenham Hotspur (Saturday 5.30pm)
Having gotten away with a relatively terrible Tottenham suggestion at the Etihad Stadium recently, we got burned this time as Mauricio Pochettino’s men turned in the same sort of absent-minded performance but were not capable of mounting an undeserved comeback. Liverpool were in no mood to pass up the opportunity in the same way as Manchester City did and blew away all doubts about their ability to function as cohesive unit, though the restoration of their absolute best front six and the demotion of Can to the bench played a huge part.
After Mane’s two-goal blast within three minutes we looked almost certain of at least making .01 from our double suggestion, but the third goal never came and Son’s miss relatively soon after proved to be pivotal. The longer things went on the more the 2-0 became entrenched, as Tottenham’s belief ebbed away and further quality chances failed to materialise. Despite the pain of a fully deserved -2 here, we appreciated the performance that Liverpool put in and the result has set up a fascinating end to the season. Chelsea will win the league without question, but the battle for the Champions League spots should be the best ever.
Suggestion: Tottenham Hotspur +0.5 @ 1.77 and Over 2.5 @ 2.01
Actual Outcome: 2-0 (-2)
Fair Outcome: 2-0 (-2)
Italian Serie A
Lazio 1-1 Milan (Monday 7.45pm)
In our preview for this one we noted that Milan conceded 22 chances to Bologna… they went one better than that this time, conceding 23 to Lazio but still somehow escaping with a 1-1. The home side were guilty of extreme wastefulness throughout the match, and if they had added to Biglia’s penalty opener on the stroke of half time then the result would not have been in doubt. As it was Milan hung in and hung in before equalising late through Suso, being rewarded for their persistence.
Even at 1-1 with 85 minutes on the clock we had some hope of getting a win here, but no more significant chances came and we were left licking our wounds and feeling hard done by. Having nailed all six of the StrataBet Premium Recommendations on Atalanta, Roma, Torino, Juventus and Inter over the course of Saturday and Sunday this one would have been the cherry on top of a superb Serie A weekend of trading for us and our customers, but ultimately it wasn’t to be.
Suggestion: Over 2.5 @ 1.90
Actual Outcome: 1-1 (-1)
Fair Outcome: 2-1 (+1)
English Premier League
Swansea City 2-0 Leicester City (Sunday 4pm)
After a horrendous summer, Swansea have clearly made amends with some excellent business in January, not least with the acquisition of Paul Clement from Bayern Munich. The new manager has made a huge difference at the Liberty Stadium, but a special nod to Tom Carroll here, who has been superb since signing from Spurs. An archetypal “Swansea signing”, the little midfielder has provided Sigurdsson with some much needed creative support and the team are flourishing.
In the end this was one of those games where we regretted our cautious stance on the DNB suggestion, because after Mawson’s great opener things never looked to be in much doubt, but we were delighted to have steered clear of trading on the Total Goals line of 2.25. These two teams are on completely opposite trajectories at the moment, but we still don’t see Claudio Ranieri’s men playing in the English Championship next season.
Suggestion: Swansea DNB @ 1.75
Actual Outcome: 2-0 (+1)
Fair Outcome: 1-0 (+1)
PSV 3-0 Utrecht (Sunday 3.45pm)
So that was why PSV were -1.75 at home to Utrecht! We could stop there, but we’re going to put up a case for the defence, which includes Utrecht’s starting midfielders Brama and Amrabat being ruled out through illness after we submitted the Weekend Preview. In addition to this Utrecht saw a perfectly good goal disallowed in the 21st minute, Barazite being a couple of yards onside when the pass was played. The worst thing was that terrible decision was the catalyst for the game to burst into life tempo-wise and once PSV had a 2-0 lead by the hour mark we were in big trouble. Typically, a half loss was then turned into a full loss with just 45 seconds of added time remaining.
Suggestion: Utrecht +1.75 @ 1.80
Actual Outcome: 3-0 (-1)
Fair Outcome: 2-0 (-0.5)
German Bundesliga 1
Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 Eintracht Frankfurt (Saturday 2.30pm)
We didn’t believe that Frankfurt had enough goals to win this one due to their team news, but we thought they might have enough about them to frustrate an inconsistent Leverkusen side on their way to an unders outcome. However, Hernandez scored after just five minutes and though it took a further hour for the next goal to come we were always in big trouble after seeing such an early opener for the favourite. Indeed, the fair score had this one at even more of a loss than the actual score, making the unders a very bad play to make.
Suggestion: Under 2.5 @ 1.84
Actual Outcome: 3-0 (-1)
Fair Outcome: 3-1 (-1)
Ones to Watch
Rotherham United 1-1 Blackburn Rovers (Saturday 3pm)
Blackburn were relentless in terms of chance creation throughout most of the contest, though Rotherham surprisingly took the lead against the run of play and almost saw it out the whole way. Still, we got away with this one a little bit as the away side probably edged it overall.
Suggestion: Rotherham +0.25 @ 1.83
Actual Outcome: 1-1 (+0.5)
Fair Outcome: 0-1 (-1)
Heerenveen 1-2 AZ (Sunday 1.30pm)
Having gone against AZ in their previous game due to poor team news, this contest saw us take the opposite approach due to Johansson, Haps, Seuntjens and Weghorst all returning. Heerenveen were without the excellent Larsson and captain Schaars, meaning that the line should have been flipped the other way.
Suggestion: AZ +0.25 @ 1.90
Actual Outcome: 1-2 (+1)
Fair Outcome: 1-2 (+1)
Portuguese Primeira Liga
Vitoria Guimaraes 0-2 Porto (Saturday 8.30pm)
Guimaraes had terrible attacking team news ahead of this one, meaning that we saw real value in buying a Porto win for near evens. It took the visitors a while to wrestle control of the contest, but with the hosts toothless a victory never looked to be in much doubt.
Suggestion: Porto -0.75 @ 1.76
Actual Outcome: 0-2 (+1)
Fair Outcome: 0-2 (+1)
Swiss Super League
Luzern 4-1 Young Boys (Sunday 3pm)
Young Boys were unbeaten in their last six away games before this one, leading us to liking them on an underdog handicap. Things were looking so rosy when they took the lead after 12 minutes, but Luzern scored three in eight minutes to take this one away from us quickly.
Suggestion: Young Boys +0.25 @ 1.80
Actual Outcome: 4-1 (-1)
Fair Outcome: 3-1 (-1)
Greek Super League
Xanthi 0-0 PAOK (Sunday 3.15pm)
We thought the market had priced this one pretty accurately on the Asian Handicap, with the -0.5 on PAOK leading to a loss in actuality and a win using fair score. We did well to avoid it in that regard, but there was an unders trade that passed us by.
Actual Outcome: 0-0 (N/A)
Fair Outcome: 0-1 (N/A)
Total Actual Outcome: -2.5
Total Fair Outcome: -0.5