Weekend Preview 28/04/17

Highlights

English Premier League
Tottenham Hotspur vs. Arsenal (Sunday 4.30pm)
Sky Sports 1
Potential salvation awaits Arsenal on Sunday afternoon at White Hart Lane, because they are still in the race for the top four and could put an end to Tottenham’s title challenge with victory at the same time. Coming out of a bruising encounter at Selhurst Park on Wednesday night, Pochettino’s men are now without Dembele and will probably still be missing Rose, which weakens them a fair bit. Arsenal had a similarly tough time against Leicester on the same evening but also got a narrow win, although it also came at a cost with Koscielny picking up a knock to his knee.

With Mustafi already out this would be a significant enough event to move the line, which is already -0.75 in favour of the hosts, pointing to the fact that the market isn’t convinced Arsenal’s captain will recover. For Tottenham this is as much about their psychology as anything, but there does seem to be something a bit different about them in that respect these days. We think a home win would be the perfect miserable end to a miserable league campaign for Wenger’s team, but despite all the signals telling us it will happen, this is still Spurs…

Suggestion: Tottenham Hotspur -0.5 @ 1.89

Spanish Primera Division
Espanyol vs. Barcelona (Saturday 7.45pm)
Sky Sports 2
Barcelona put a cat amongst the pigeons with their win in one of the best Clasicos of recent times last weekend and followed it up with a thumping 7-1 home win over Osasuna in midweek. They have the head-to-head advantage over Real Madrid in the title race, but crucially Zidane’s men still have a game in hand. This all adds up to mean that Enrique has to go out and win all four of his remaining games, starting with the Catalan Derby.

Espanyol are enjoying one of the best campaigns they’ve had in a while under the guidance of Sanchez Flores, but haven’t won this fixture since 2009. Neymar is back for the visitors and the hosts are in relatively good health overall, meaning team news favours Barca but isn’t completely tilted in one direction. Still, a money line of -2 on the handicap is completely understandable and the evens goal line of 3.5 is typically well pitched, though we think that in a derby of this magnitude the opportunity is to back the underdog.

Suggestion: Espanyol +2.25 @ 1.80

Spanish Primera Division
Real Madrid vs. Valencia (Saturday 3.15pm)
Bet365
The task for Real is even more straightforward than it is for Barcelona: if they take 13 points from the last 15 available then they are champions. However, unlike Barca the capital side also need to balance their Champions League aspirations, with the first leg of their semi-final with Atletico coming up quickly on Tuesday evening. That points to the hosts easing off if in a comfortable position here, which they should be able to get to against a Valencia side who are stranded in mid-table.

Zidane is likely to change things around heavily once again after a thumping 6-2 win at La Coruna using a shadow side, while anything less than three points is completely out of the question. We’re pretty certain Real will win, but the line is even more aggressive than Barcelona’s at -2.5, while the goal line is unsurprisingly up at 4.5. This one is tough.

Suggestion: N/A

English Premier League
Manchester United vs. Swansea City (Sunday 12pm)
BT Sport 1
Mourinho would have been much the happier of the two managers after Thursday’s Manchester Derby, with United coming away with a 0-0 from the Etihad Stadium to stay firmly in the top four race. Even after admitting that winning the Europa League is their priority they have kept an excellent unbeaten run afloat, but a trip to Celta Vigo is on the horizon after this game. Swansea’s task is clear, as even though they won last weekend they are still two points away from safety. They’re at the stage where even a draw is a relatively poor result in the context of the relegation battle, so it should make for a very interesting game. Playing immediately before City, United have to go for the win.

Suggestion: Over 2.5 @ 1.89 

English Premier League
Middlesbrough vs. Manchester City (Sunday 2.05pm)
No TV
Guardiola’s men are in the potentially awkward position of following their top four rivals and neighbours, but crucially they play before Arsenal and Liverpool so can apply some pressure to others around themselves. They are sure to be hurting after failing to find a way through against United on Thursday night, while Middlesbrough will be on a mini-high after beating local rivals Sunderland on Wednesday evening to keep a small flicker of survival hope burning. We’ll back City to end that rather emphatically this coming Sunday, though, as we haven’t rated Middlesbrough all season and don’t plan on changing now.

Suggestion: Manchester City -1.5 @ 1.84 and Over 3 @ 1.82

Ones to Follow

Italian Serie A
Roma vs. Lazio (Sunday 11.30am)
BT Sport 3
The Rome derby means more to the visitors than the hosts, with Lazio still in pursuit of the third and final Champions League spot in Serie A. Roma look fairly comfortable in second but need to stay professional, while they will be seeking revenge for their Coppa Italia defeat too.

Suggestion: Under 3.25 @ 1.93

Italian Serie A
Internazionale vs. Napoli (Sunday 7.45pm)
BT Sport 2
A couple of months ago this game looked like it could mean so much more at this late stage, but Inter have gone on a horrendous run of five games without a win to fall completely out of contention for the top three. Napoli still have work to do, however.

Suggestion: Napoli DNB @ 1.73

English Championship
Leeds United vs. Norwich City (Saturday 3pm)
No TV
This looks like a must-win game for Leeds, who are three points behind Fulham with an inferior goal difference and only two games left to play. They cannot afford to do anything other than go for it, with the assumption that Fulham will take maximum points at home to Brentford.

Suggestion: Over 2.75 @ 1.96

English Championship
Fulham vs. Brentford (Saturday 3pm)
No TV
Brentford are better at home than when going away, but they are in a pressure-free situation and looking to finish in an excellent eighth place in the table. Fulham, meanwhile, are only recently into the top six and could start to waver now that they are the ones being chased.

Suggestion: Fulham -1 @ 1.81

English Championship
Ipswich Town vs. Sheffield Wednesday (Saturday 3pm)
No TV
McCarthy’s side play their last home game of the season and can still have a big say in the play-off race, with Wednesday currently fifth but still within grasp of Leeds in seventh. We think they have enough about them to get on a draw based on their Newcastle performance.

Suggestion: Ipswich +0.5 @ 1.88

*Odds accurate at time of writing

Weekend Review 25/04/17

Highlights

Spanish Primera Division
Real Madrid 2-3 Barcelona (Sunday 7.45pm)
With the score stuck at 1-1 heading into the 73rd minute things were looking pretty steady for our recommendation, which had banked on Real to be able to manage the game effectively if at this sort of game state at such a late stage of proceedings. However, up stepped Rakitic with an excellent left-footed strike to make it 1-2 and to throw things into chaos. Ramos was sent off four minutes later, then James equalised eight minutes after that to kill off our suggestion and finally Messi went and won it for Barca in the last minute for good measure.

We had shied away from suggesting Barcelona at a +0.5 line pre-match despite our instinct and our model favouring it heavily, preferring to hope for a cagey encounter short on goals. However, what we got instead was one of the most gripping Clasicos of recent times, with the visitors keeping their title aspirations alive with the only result that was good enough. Our Analyst Fair Score had this at 2-2, which would have kept Zidane’s side in the driving seat, but as it is Barcelona now lead the league on head-to-head, although Real still have that crucial game in hand.

Suggestion: Under 3.5 @ 1.91
Actual Outcome: 2-3 (-1)
Fair Outcome: 2-2 (-1)

French Ligue 1
Olympique Lyonnais 1-2 Monaco (Sunday 8.15pm)
A rotated Lyon put up a good fight against our favourite team in Europe, but Monaco were ultimately deserved winners. Pre-match almost everything had pointed towards the visitors being favourites rather than equals, and by kick-off the DNB price was almost at 1.60 when realisation set in that the hosts were indeed going to rest a number of players. Falcao and Mbappe did the damage yet again, but a Monaco defence missing Sidibe and Mendy was made to work very hard to see the game out.

As expected, both teams tired towards the end after their European exploits in midweek, which played perfectly into Monaco’s hands. They ultimately passed what looked like their biggest test remaining in the title race, but with PSG taking three points again it seems like they are going to have to win four of their remaining five matches to secure the title. For a team still in the Champions League that is a big ask, but there are no real signs of nerves setting in or momentum waning just yet.

Suggestion: Monaco DNB @ 1.94
Actual Outcome: 1-2 (+1)
Fair Outcome: 1-2 (+1)

Dutch Eredivisie
PSV 1-0 Ajax (Sunday 3.45pm)
Having been knocked out of the title race by Feyenoord weeks ago, PSV pretty much ended Ajax’s interest in the Eredivisie crown with a solid performance and fair 1-0 victory in this huge clash. The fact that Feyenoord had won earlier in the round probably didn’t help the visitors’ psychology, while they were also noticeably leggy after going through extra time with a man less against Schalke on Thursday evening.

Ultimately it was all set up for PSV to take a win and prove the pre-match market pricing to be quite accurate, though they never looked like running away with it. They could yet sneak into the runners-up spot if this result really takes the wind out of Ajax’s sails domestically, with their impending two-legged tie with Lyon in the Europa League Semi-Final certain to be a big distraction that impacts heavily on their performance against Go Ahead on Sunday.

Suggestion: N/A
Actual Outcome: 1-0 (N/A)
Fair Outcome: 1-0 (N/A) 

Portuguese Primeira Liga
Sporting CP 1-1 Benfica (Saturday 8.30pm)
Sporting did their rivals Porto a big favour by taking a point here, but amazingly Porto then slipped up at home to Feirense to ensure that Benfica remain heavy favourites to win the title. In an incredibly tight and evenly balanced encounter the goal line was never in much danger, with most of the play taking place in midfield and very few opportunities being created. As soon as Benfica got back to parity midway through the second half they looked perfectly content with the draw and Sporting did not have the creativity to break them down. Jonas missing out for the visitors was a big issue, as we had predicted, with Benfica never carrying the same level of threat when he’s not on the pitch.

Suggestion: Over 2.25 @ 1.93
Actual Outcome: 1-1 (-0.5)
Fair Outcome: 1-1 (-0.5) 

English Premier League
AFC Bournemouth 4-0 Middlesbrough (Saturday 3pm)
This should be the final nail in Middlesbrough’s coffin and it really was an afternoon to forget for the visitors. Already trailing 2-0 they saw Ramirez sent off for collecting two stupid yellows, the first for a dive and the second for a lunge, which left them with no chance. While we had expected the visitors to score, Bournemouth saw us comfortably over the goals line with a rampant performance that secures their place in the division for another season. As for Boro, they left their managerial change too late and were too entrenched in Karanka’s negative style to improve.

Suggestion: Over 2.25 @ 1.93
Actual Outcome: 4-0 (+1)
Fair Outcome: 3-0 (+1)

Ones to Follow

English Premier League
Hull City 2-0 Watford (Saturday 3pm)
Despite suffering a controversial red card midway through the first half, Hull regrouped to continue Marco Silva’s imperious home record as a manager and take a big jump towards survival. Watford were ideal opponents, though, with their away performances bearing all the hallmarks of a side who are lacking incentives.

Suggestion: Hull City -0.5 @ 1.94
Actual Outcome: 2-0 (+1)
Fair Outcome: 1-0 (+1)

English Premier League
Swansea City 2-0 Stoke City (Saturday 3pm)
Despite not really turning up at the Liberty Stadium, Stoke missed a penalty at 1-0 down that could have really changed the complexion of this game. Swansea were undoubtedly fair winners based on their overall performance, as their visitors continued their abject form on the road and seemingly lacked motivation.

Suggestion: Stoke City +0.25 @ 2.04
Actual Outcome: 2-0 (-1)
Fair Outcome: 1-0 (-1) 

English Championship
Burton Albion 2-1 Leeds United (Saturday 3pm)
Leeds’ wobble continued as they failed to take anything from a game where they made the better opportunities. Burton took their best chances when they came to all but seal safety. It now looks very tough for Leeds to make the play-offs, with their goal difference vastly inferior to Fulham’s.

Suggestion: Leeds United DNB @ 1.82
Actual Outcome: 2-1 (-1)
Fair Outcome: 1-1 (0)

English Championship
Huddersfield Town 1-4 Fulham (Saturday 3pm)
We call Fulham the “Monaco of the Championship” around the office at the moment, because of their ridiculous attacking numbers. They are the real impetus side heading into the play-off picture and they steamrolled Huddersfield here, despite falling behind very early. Their final game against Wednesday should be a corker.

Suggestion: Fulham +0.25 @ 1.94 and Over 2.5 @ 1.89
Actual Outcome: 1-4 (+2)
Fair Outcome: 1-3 (+2)

English Championship
Nottingham Forest 3-2 Reading (Saturday 3pm)
This ended up being a fully deserved win for Forest and a game that was always destined to go over 2.5, with both sides needing to go all-out for the victory. In the end the hosts took a big step towards safety, while Reading’s slim hopes of automatic promotion ended.

Suggestion: Over 2.5 @ 1.84
Actual Outcome: 3-2 (+1)
Fair Outcome: 3-1 (+1)

10 Suggestions
Actual Outcome: +2.5
Fair Outcome: +3.5

Weekend Preview 21/04/17

Highlights

Spanish Primera Division
Real Madrid vs. Barcelona (Sunday 7.45pm)
Sky Sports 1
Barcelona’s title hopes rely solely on the outcome of this game, with nothing less than a win good enough. Following a humbling midweek in the Champions League they need to show a reaction for their supporters, but with Neymar still suspended and Rafinha again injured they are missing a lot of power in attack. Alternatively Real Madrid are missing power in defence, with Varane and Pepe still on the sidelines, although Bale is expected back in the squad and is currently rated 50/50 to start. If he begins then Real will edge the team news, putting them in the box seat.

However, it’s important to remember that while Zidane’s men played a day before Barcelona in midweek they had to go through extra time to get past Bayern, which always takes a lot out of players. Enrique’s men were able to drop their intensity once they realised there was no fighting back against Juventus, saving themselves for this outing. Our instinct and our model points towards Barcelona on the handicap, but it’s very difficult to trust them in their current psychological state. Instead of this we’ll bank on Real’s ability to keep it tight when a draw suits them nicely.

Suggestion: Under 3.5 @ 1.91

French Ligue 1
Olympique Lyonnais vs. Monaco (Sunday 8.15pm)
BT Sport 1

Monaco continue to keep PSG at arm’s length, but they’ve had to win six in a row to do so and last time out at home to Dijon they were far from convincing. Lyon are still something of an enigma and were involved in yet another game with crowd trouble last week, their game at Bastia being postponed in the second half with the score at 0-0. Having progressed to a Europa League Semi-Final with Manchester United by virtue of penalties in Turkey on Thursday night, it’s safe to say that they probably have less motivation than their hosts here.

The visitors also had a big week in Europe too, dispatching of a psychologically fragile Dortmund 3-1 to win 6-3 on aggregate and move on to a Champions League Semi against Juventus. Monaco didn’t have to go through extra time, were at home and also played a day earlier, meaning they have a number of schedule advantages. In addition to this they also edge the team news with Fabinho back, as only Sidibe is sidelined.

Suggestion: Monaco DNB @ 1.94

Dutch Eredivisie
PSV vs. Ajax (Sunday 3.45pm)
Sky Sports 4
Ajax are still in second, just one point behind leaders Feyenoord, while PSV are six points further back in third. Before their disappointing 1-1 draw in Den Haag last week PSV were almost back in the race, but now even a runners-up spot would be a shock. However, this is a huge opportunity for them to reel in Ajax and to knock their big rivals out of contention at the same time.

The hosts have a preparation advantage over Ajax, who went to extra time with a man less and still managed to advance against Schalke in the Europa League on Thursday night, while the team news looks pretty flat. PSV should be enough of a fly in the ointment to force a draw, but they are narrow favourites here and backing a win seems a little bit of a stretch. A goal line of 3 is perfectly pitched, too.

Suggestion: N/A

Portuguese Primeira Liga
Sporting CP vs. Benfica (Saturday 8.30pm)
BT Sport ESPN
Sporting are not out of the title race yet, though they absolutely have to win here to have any chance of overturning the eight point gap to their visitors. Porto are sandwiched between the two but dropped points at the weekend, meaning Benfica have the finishing line in sight. Sporting have to go for the jugular, while Benfica could happily take a draw but will obviously set out looking for the win, which makes the 2.25 line look on the low side. Both teams look set to be at absolute full strength, which is always good to see, but it makes it almost impossible to split them. However, Jonas is a major doubt for Benfica and if absent the line will move heavily towards Sporting.

Suggestion: Over 2.25 @ 1.93 

English Premier League
AFC Bournemouth vs. Middlesbrough (Saturday 3pm)
No TV
Middlesbrough have to start winning, and soon, because they have six games left to overturn a six point deficit to Hull in 17th and now only one game in hand after their loss to Arsenal on Monday night. The defensive ways of the past have to go out of the window because Bournemouth are fragile enough at the back and deep enough in trouble to be got at. They have opened up since Karanka left but scoring goals is still a problem, so we can’t trust them on the handicap, but we do think this will have three goals plus.

Suggestion: Over 2.5 @ 1.94

Ones to Follow

English Premier League
Hull City vs. Watford (Saturday 3pm)
No TV
Watford continue to surprise us this season and are still turning in motivated performances despite being safe. There is a danger they can switch off now they have hit 40 points and that would be a big problem against a Hull side who are much better when playing at home.

Suggestion: Hull City -0.5 @ 1.94

English Premier League
Swansea City vs. Stoke City (Saturday 3pm)
No TV
The new manager bounce has deserted Swansea already, with the club now six league games without a win. Stoke are much better at home than away but are awkward enough and dangerous enough now that Arnautovic and Shaqiri are back on the flanks to take at least a draw here.

Suggestion: Stoke City +0.25 @ 2.04

English Championship
Burton Albion vs. Leeds United (Saturday 3pm)
No TV
Burton took a huge step towards safety with their win on Monday, while Leeds fell out of the play-off places with a loss at home to Wolves. There is a huge amount at stake for both, but a draw would suit Burton better. With that in mind, we’ll back Leeds.

Suggestion: Leeds United DNB @ 1.82

English Championship
Huddersfield Town vs. Fulham (Saturday 3pm)
No TV
This is a gigantic game in terms of the top end of the Championship, with Huddersfield amazingly still in the running for automatic promotion and Fulham now in the play-off spots at the expense of Leeds. When it’s Fulham you back goals; they also have the team news and momentum.

Suggestion: Fulham +0.25 @ 1.94 and Over 2.5 @ 1.89

English Championship
Nottingham Forest vs. Reading (Saturday 3pm)
No TV
Reading are not the team you want to play when you’re on the cusp of falling into the relegation zone, especially on the back of two undeserved defeats over Easter. Forest are this season’s “team who look too good to go down”, while Reading still have some work to do.

Suggestion: Over 2.5 @ 1.84

*Odds accurate at time of writing

Weekend Review 19/04/17

Highlights 

English Premier League
Manchester United 2-0 Chelsea (Sunday 4pm)
Jose struck again, but at least our prediction that Chelsea would swing to be favourites before kick-off came true! The visitors were clearly unsettled by the loss of Courtois to injury during midweek and Alonso falling ill during the warm-up, but let’s not forget that this was a Manchester United side without Jones, Mata, Rooney and Smalling. In addition to this Ibrahimovic and Mkhitaryan started on the bench, as the hosts switched to a dynamic 3-5-2 to combat the 3-4-2-1 threat of Chelsea.

This proved to be a masterstroke, with Conte’s side creating nothing more than a Good Chance (~15% conversion) and Fairly Good Chance (~8% conversion) during the contest. United fashioned just enough opportunities to have earned the win, though 2-0 flattered them a bit. The impact this result had on the rest of the league was not as big as the media intimated, with Chelsea still firmly in the box seat for the title, but it does keep United alive in the hunt for top four. Their schedule is tough but this result should give them the belief to keep chasing down City, who are four points ahead with a similar goal difference having played a game more.

Suggestion: Chelsea DNB @ 2.07
Actual Outcome: 2-0 (-1)
Fair Outcome: 1-0 (-1)

Italian Serie A
Internazionale 2-2 Milan (Saturday 11.30am)
A bit more bravery on the goals would have been the difference between a negative and positive weekend for us, because we were inches away from suggesting the overs. While there was not a huge amount on the line this was one of the best Milan derbies in recent times, with the visitors fighting back from 2-0 to take an undeserved point. The tempo was relentless from the outset and it was no surprise to see two goals by half time, while the derby factor meant that Milan had to pile forward after the interval.

Inter were left ruing two missed chances for Perisic shortly after the break, but Milan didn’t pull one back until the 83rd minute and so they still got very close to getting the job done. In terms of the bigger picture in Serie A this kept Atalanta in the box seat for fifth and ensured Inter have now gone four games without a win, following a run of form that had put them into contention for a top three finish.

Suggestion: Milan +0.5 @ 1.89
Actual Outcome: 2-2 (+1)
Fair Outcome: 2-1 (-1) 

English Championship
Newcastle United 1-1 Leeds United (Friday 7.45pm)
This seems like a long time ago now, after the Championship played another full round on Monday, but it was notable for corners above all else. Newcastle ended with 19, while Leeds recorded none, but crucially the final score read 1-1. In truth the goal line was never in significant danger, but the hosts played well and maintained a constant level of pressure that meant a two-goal outcome was always fair enough.

However, as our Analyst Fair Score shows, 2-0 would have been a much more suitable result given the pattern of play. Before Wood equalised the visitors had managed just a couple of poor chances with shots from range, while Darlow was only called into action to make one save of any significance. On the other hand Green had a very busy evening, but was never really asked to do too much (though he did make everything look pretty!)

Suggestion: Over 2.25 @ 1.88
Actual Outcome: 1-1 (-0.5)
Fair Outcome: 2-0 (-0.5)

Italian Serie A
Roma 1-1 Atalanta (Saturday 2pm)
Oh Roma. In our preview we spoke about how much they have hurt us this season but how they seemed to be in a new zone psychologically, although we always appreciated that this Atalanta side would provide them with a stern test. Still, a deserved 1-1 result was about the worst outcome possible and while the hosts edged the chances they didn’t do enough to have earned a win. It took them too long to wake up and rise to the occasion, by which time they were already a goal behind and facing a team with real belief. With Juventus winning again this was the weekend that saw Roma finally give up the ghost in the title race, though they’ve never really been in it.

Suggestion: Roma -1 @ 1.93 and Over 3 @ 1.84
Actual Outcome: 1-1 (-2)
Fair Outcome: 1-1 (-2)

English Premier League
Middlesbrough 1-2 Arsenal (Monday 8pm)
One of Middlesbrough’s best performances for a while was not enough to get them any points, with Arsenal’s superior offensive strength and a new formation seeing them through in the end. Ultimately the visitors did just about enough to deserve the points and the game was always a good candidate to end with three goals, as Middlesbrough cannot afford to settle for draws at this stage of the campaign. We expect to see them involved in more games where both teams score and we see overs suggestions coming in, but the market will probably catch on to them soon enough.

Suggestion: Over 2.5 @ 1.80
Actual Outcome: 1-2 (+1)
Fair Outcome: 1-2 (+1)

Ones to Watch

Portuguese Primeira Liga
Sporting Braga 1-1 Porto (Saturday 8.30pm)
This always looked like Porto’s most difficult remaining fixture, and so it proved as Braga deservedly held them. It could have been worse for the visitors, who conceded a penalty that was missed before the break when already behind, but they missed a great chance to win it late on.

Suggestion: Over 2.25 @ 1.81
Actual Outcome: 1-1 (-0.5)
Fair Outcome: 1-1 (-0.5)

English Championship
Birmingham City 0-2 Burton Albion (Monday 3pm)
This game proved to be the end of Zola at Birmingham, with the Italian being a crazy appointment in the first place when Rowett was doing so well. The visitors may not have been worth a two-goal margin but they certainly deserved the win, taking full advantage of the disharmony.

Suggestion: Burton Albion +0.25 @ 2.06
Actual Outcome: 0-2 (+1)
Fair Outcome: 1-2 (+1)

English Championship
Blackburn Rovers 1-1 Bristol City (Monday 3pm)
A super goal from Abraham earned Bristol a point that pushed them further away from trouble, though they really should have taken all three. We had earmarked them on a plus handicap early on this week, with Blackburn on a real slide. In the end it got us a half.

Suggestion: Bristol City +0.25 @ 1.76
Actual Outcome: 1-1 (+0.5)
Fair Outcome: 0-1 (+1)

German Bundesliga 2
Hannover 96 1-0 Eintracht Braunschweig (Saturday 12pm)
Prior to this kicking off eight of the last ten games involving these teams had ended under 2.5 goals, which made the line hard to fathom. As it was Hannover took a deserved win, though our Fair Score has them one step closer to the line than the Actual Score.

Suggestion: Under 2.5 @ 1.89
Actual Outcome: 1-0 (+1)
Fair Outcome: 2-0 (+1)

German Bundesliga 1
Hoffenheim 5-3 Borussia Monchengladbach (Saturday 2.30pm)
This was one of those games where everything seemed to find the net and unfortunately it ended up favouring Hoffenheim and being very bad for our Asian Handicap suggestion. Gladbach were 2-0 down pretty early and actually fought back to 2-2 before getting too carried away and being picked off.

Suggestion: Borussia Monchengladbach +0.75 @ 1.80
Actual Outcome: 5-3 (-1)
Fair Outcome: 3-2 (-0.5)

11 Suggestions
Actual Outcome: -0.5
Fair Outcome: -1.5

Weekend Preview 14/04/17

Highlights

English Premier League
Manchester United vs. Chelsea (Sunday 4pm)
Sky Sports 1
This is Mourinho versus Chelsea at Old Trafford, with Manchester United somehow still in the running for a top four finish and Chelsea looking to take a giant leap towards the title. There is no doubt that this is the game of the weekend, with the only downside being that we have to wait until Easter Sunday to see it. Jose hasn’t had a full week to prepare for his old employers and was bitterly disappointed with United’s 1-1 draw with Anderlecht in Belgium on Thursday evening, which for us instantly tips the scales in the visitors’ favour.

Beyond that the hosts are without Mata, Jones and Smalling for definite, while Valencia could also miss out for a further blow. Chelsea, as usual, are at absolute full strength. With a full week to set up and momentum regained after their slip at home to Palace, we have to take the Champions to-be on at DNB. Indeed, if they are still slight underdogs at kick-off, we’ll be very surprised. The goal line does look low to us but Mourinho might spring a surprise with his formation to keep it tight, or might just try to kick Hazard off the park again…

Suggestion: Chelsea DNB @ 2.07

Italian Serie A
Internazionale vs. Milan (Saturday 11.30am)
BT Sport 1
While this is not the contest it once was the final Milan derby of 2016/2017 has a lot on the line. The teams are separated by just one place and two points in the table, with whoever finishes ahead likely to be rewarded with Europa League football next season, and the total reversal in fortunes over recent weeks adds a nice subplot. Inter were flying before their 2-2 draw at Torino in mid-March and looked capable of usurping Napoli for the final Champions League spot, but something happened in that game to throw them completely off course.

After working minor miracles since arriving at San Siro it seems that Pioli finds himself under huge pressure, which has only intensified after a dismal defeat to Crotone last time out. The other half of the city is much happier, with Milan’s only loss in nine coming at Juventus and being a very close-run thing. We’re obviously taking Milan on the plus handicap and are sorely tempted by the overs, but we’ll leave that one to braver souls.

Suggestion: Milan +0.5 @ 1.89

English Championship
Newcastle United vs. Leeds United (Friday 7.45pm)
Sky Sports 1
This game kicks off festivities for us on Easter Weekend. You might remember that Newcastle also featured in our last Weekend Preview and cost us dearly when slipping to a 2-1 defeat at Hillsborough, so they owe us one here. Their task to stay with Brighton is made more difficult by Gayle being ruled out due to injury, but otherwise Benitez has the strongest pool to select from for some time. There’s no doubt that he’ll pick his team with Monday’s trip to Ipswich in mind, whereas Leeds probably have to go full strength.

Monk’s men rebounded well from two consecutive losses with a resounding 3-0 win over Preston last time out and with Bridcutt likely to return they can name a very strong line-up here. There’s a huge amount on the line for both teams promotion-wise and now Newcastle are back to chasing, they should play with more intent.

Suggestion: Over 2.25 @ 1.88

Italian Serie A
Roma vs. Atalanta (Saturday 2pm)
Bet365
Roma are one of those teams (like Lyon) that have given us nightmares this season, but they appear to have found some consistency in terms of their approach after being knocked out of the Europa League (by Lyon, funnily enough). Our issue with Spalletti’s men has always been their attitude. They often get into good situations but do not display much professionalism in terms of game management, which leaves them liable to lose handicaps from winning positions. However, given that they’ve won four in a row by more than one and Atalanta are missing star attacker Gomez in addition to having big doubts over their wing-backs, we’ll take a risk on them here. However, we’ll add some security with a goals bet tagged on too.

Suggestion: Roma -1 @ 1.93 and Over 3 @ 1.84

English Premier League
Middlesbrough vs. Arsenal (Monday 8pm)
Sky Sports 1
Middlesbrough are at least finally trying to score goals and were unfortunate to only come away from their last game with a 0-0 draw. Now six points from safety with seven left to play they cannot afford to go back into their shells, even against superior opponents. It looks a great time to play Arsenal after their humbling loss at Crystal Palace, with Boro surely setting up to try and replicate Sam Allardyce’s approach. Cech and Koscielny should be back to shore up the visitors here, though, which means we’ll only suggest the goals and stay clear of the handicap.

Suggestion: Over 2.5 @ 1.80

Ones to Watch

Portuguese Primeira Liga
Sporting Braga vs. Porto (Saturday 8.30pm)
Bet365
With six games left to go in Portugal this encounter is enormous because it is Porto’s biggest remaining test and they are in hot pursuit of Benfica at the summit, being just one point behind. The visitors have a significant edge on team news but the form is evenly split.

Suggestion: Over 2.25 @ 1.81

English Championship
Birmingham City vs. Burton Albion (Monday 3pm)
N/A
The first of our Championship relegation double-header sees 18th hosting 20th, though positions could change after Good Friday’s round of games. Birmingham should take points at Rotherham, while Burton will also fancy their chances at home to Ipswich. We’ll add our suggestion for this on Sunday when more is known.

Suggestion: Burton Albion +0.25 @ 2.06

English Championship
Blackburn Rovers vs. Bristol City (Monday 3pm)
N/A
This one is 23rd versus 21st and so there’s even more at stake, with Blackburn on a downward spiral at the moment. Before the markets open we like the idea of the visitors on a plus handicap, but after Friday’s results it has DNB as the natural line, as expected.

Suggestion: Bristol City +0.25 @ 1.76

German Bundesliga 2
Hannover 96 vs. Eintracht Braunschweig (Saturday 12pm)
Bet365
Just three points separate BL2’s top four with six to play. Hannover are third on 53 and Braunschweig second on 54. As you might expect it’s an incredibly tight encounter handicap-wise, but there has been a propensity for both to go unders lately so we’ll back the trend to continue.

Suggestion: Under 2.5 @ 1.89

German Bundesliga 1
Hoffenheim vs. Borussia Monchengladbach (Saturday 2.30pm)
Bet365
With six games left in BL1 it’s still a huge shock to see Dortmund lagging behind Leipzig and Hoffenheim in fourth, which is what makes this contest so interesting. Hoffenheim wobbled last week at Hamburg and Gladbach have started to turn things around. This sort of game should suit them.

Suggestion: Borussia Monchengladbach +0.75 @ 1.80

*Odds accurate at time of writing

Weekend Review 11/04/17

Highlights

Spanish Primera Division
Real Madrid 1-1 Atletico Madrid (Saturday 3.15pm)
Before the game we bemoaned the scheduling throwing it up directly before a huge Champions League week, but in fairness to both sides there was good intensity on display from the outset. The contest unfolded in a largely expected manner, with Atletico putting the onus on their hosts to force the tempo and being happy to threaten on the break and from set pieces. Real were left relying on long shots for much of the first half, with Simeone’s side having the upper hand tactically. Things opened up significantly after the interval, however.

Real came out with renewed intent after some words from Zidane and Ronaldo missed a header before Benzema was denied brilliantly by Oblak, but Pepe of all people broke the deadlock soon after. This was the worst direction of a goal for our suggestion because Atletico had to come out, but thankfully they did so in their usual controlled style. Real kept looking to try and kill the game off with Bale missing some good openings, before Simeone’s changes paid off when Correa released Griezmann to equalise five minutes from time. Atletico saw it out with ease from there, but they probably didn’t deserve anything from this.

Suggestion: Under 2.75 @ 1.88
Actual Outcome: 1-1 (+1)
Fair Outcome: 2-1 (-0.5)

Italian Serie A
Lazio 0-3 Napoli (Sunday 7.45pm)
The late team news went against Lazio here, with de Vrij and Biglia missing out having been doubtful all week plus Lulic also joining them on the sidelines at the last minute. Napoli were largely full strength and took full advantage, establishing a lead in the first half, building upon this in early in the second and then putting the icing on the cake in stoppage time. In truth a three-goal victory was flattering based on the chances created, but Napoli exerted good control despite some shaky moments at the back.

Lazio did enough to have scored but there’s no doubt Napoli deserved the points, with the outcome pretty much ensuring that the Champions League spots are all wrapped up. Lazio now find themselves seven points behind Napoli with seven to play, while Atalanta are a further point back and have hit a bit of a sticky patch. Milan have always been too inconsistent to threaten, while Inter’s superb run under Pioli has come to a crashing end with back-to-back defeats against Sampdoria and Crotone.

Suggestion: Over 2.75 @ 1.84
Actual Outcome: 0-3 (+0.5)
Fair Outcome: 1-2 (+0.5) 

German Bundesliga 1
Bayern Munchen 4-1 Borussia Dortmund (Saturday 5.30pm)
This always looked like it had goals in it and as soon as Bayern raced into a commanding lead after ten minutes we were sitting pretty. At that point the only option left to Tuchel was to go for it, because this isn’t the sort of fixture where you’re able to lie down or deploy damage limitation. In fairness to the visitors they did manage to redress the deficit quickly, but that only seemed to refocus the hosts who then went on to dominate the second half.

The only big moment Dortmund had after the break was Aubameyang’s one-on-one, which he made a bit of a mess of, and Robben duly punished him immediately after with a typical goal. This ended the contest and after it went to 4-1 the remainder was played out at a crawl, as both turned their minds to their impending Champions League ties in midweek.

Suggestion: Over 2.75 @ 1.81
Actual Outcome: 4-1 (+1)
Fair Outcome: 3-1 (+1)

English Premier League
Manchester City 3-1 Hull City (Saturday 3pm)
After their hard-fought 2-1 loss at Stamford Bridge in midweek, this was much more like it from Man City. Moving to the more cautious +2.25 handicap paid off nicely for us, but really in terms of the pattern of the game this was not a comfortable outcome by any stretch of the imagination. When Man City are such heavy favourites you are often just left relying on their attitude to trip them up and thankfully it happened again here, with Hull grabbing a poor consolation goal five minutes from time to earn us a half-win. Hull seemed to approach this like a team who knew their bigger battles for survival were still to come, never looking compact or organised enough to properly trouble Guardiola’s men.

Suggestion: Hull City +2.25 @ 1.81
Actual Outcome: 3-1 (+0.5)
Fair Outcome: 2-0 (+0.5)

English Premier League
Crystal Palace 3-0 Arsenal (Monday 8pm)
As soon as this one kicked off we were left wishing we’d gone with our instinct and backed Palace on the Asian Handicap, with Arsenal looking second best in terms of their psychology. It was one of those games where the classic “Palace” counter style of playing was perfectly suited to the opposition, who were desperately lacking leadership and quality at the back with Cech and Koscielny absent. It looks like the final nail in Arsenal’s coffin as far as the top four goes, but for us the writing was on the wall before the season began back in August.

Suggestion: Under 3 @ 1.80
Actual Outcome: 3-0 (0)
Fair Outcome: 2-0 (+1)

Ones to Watch

English Premier League
Middlesbrough 0-0 Burnley (Saturday 3pm)
Playing in a new 3-5-2 formation with Gestede partnering Stuani in attack there was no doubt Middlesbrough carried much more threat here, fashioning enough to have deserved a 2-1 win. Burnley had some good openings of their own but left the happier of the two. They’re almost home and dry.

Suggestion: Over 2 @ 1.88
Actual Outcome: 0-0 (-1)
Fair Outcome: 2-1 (+1)

English Championship
Sheffield Wednesday 2-1 Newcastle United (Saturday 5.30pm)
Newcastle have ridden their luck this season and this was one of those games where they were caught out by motivated opposition. Wednesday were able to make chances from the outset and our double trade always looked under threat, especially when Benitez lost Gayle to injury on the half hour.

Suggestion: Newcastle United 0 @ 1.75 and Under 2.5 @ 1.78
Actual Outcome: 2-1 (-2)
Fair Outcome: 2-1 (-2) 

Scottish Premiership
Aberdeen 0-3 Rangers (Sunday 12.30pm)
Rangers kept their slim hopes of a runners-up spot alive with a win that came against the run of play, thanks to three goals scored in four minutes. Aberdeen wasted too many chances and while the game always had enough intent to go over, it was too close for comfort.

Suggestion: Over 2.5 @ 1.98
Actual Outcome: 0-3 (+1)
Fair Outcome: 2-2 (+1) 

Turkish Super Lig
Istanbul Basaksehir 3-0 Galatasaray (Monday 6pm)
Basaksehir now stand alone as the only team that can challenge Besiktas for the title, still sitting five points behind with seven to play. Galatasaray were blown out of the race here and are likely to change coach again this summer, because Tudor has barely made a difference since arriving.

Suggestion: Under 2.75 @ 1.91
Actual Outcome: 4-0 (-1)
Fair Outcome: 3-0 (-0.5) 

Greek Super League
PAOK 3-0 Panathinaikos (Sunday 5pm)
Like the Galatasaray game, this outcome signalled something of a changing of a guard this season. PAOK have been more dangerous and consistent than Panathinaikos all term, especially at home, and comfortably beat the handicap to move clear in second. Olympiakos dropped points again and are just six ahead now.

Suggestion: N/A
Actual Outcome: 3-0 (N/A)
Fair Outcome: 3-0 (N/A) 

10 Suggestions
Total Actual Outcome: 0
Total Fair Outcome: +2

Weekend Preview 07/04/17

Highlights 

Spanish Primera Division
Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid (Saturday 3.15pm)
Bet365
The big shame for this game is the fact that it has to kick off during live football blackout hours in the UK in order to give both teams as much time as possible to prepare for their midweek encounters. The second is that it’s coming directly before an enormous midweek in Europe’s premier competition, as it means neither side may be willing to place complete focus upon the other. There’s certainly more at stake for Real than Atletico, with Barcelona now just two points behind them (although Zidane’s side do have a game in hand), while the visitors look guaranteed a top four spot and really should be finishing third without much trouble from Sevilla.

In terms of the positives, both have won their last five games in the league and so are at the absolute peak of their powers, while this is always a huge occasion regardless of circumstance. In addition to this both squads are pretty much at full capacity, with Varane the only one to miss out for Real and Vrsaljko the only significant name absent for Atletico. We’ll back the unders and hope that there’s no early goal, allowing minds to drift to the UCL.

Suggestion: Under 2.75 @ 1.88

Italian Serie A
Lazio vs. Napoli (Sunday 7.45pm)
BT Sport 3
Third travel to fourth in another superb game from Serie A, with Lazio trailing Napoli by just four points. What makes this one so interesting is that third in Italy is the final UEFA Champions League spot, so there’s a huge amount riding on it. Napoli drew 1-1 with Juventus last weekend and actually beat them in their Coppa Italia Semi-Final second leg during midweek, though it was not enough to progress after a 3-1 loss in the first outing. Still, that result is a good psychological boost.

Lazio have an even bigger one after dispatching of city rivals Roma in the same competition, however, and have had an extra day to prepare. All of this adds up to make the home side attractive on a plus handicap, although we are put off by the doubts over De Vrij, Biglia and Immobile. If all were absent it would equate to a significant weakening (especially defensively), not what you want against the league’s top scorers, while Napoli are looking likely to be at absolute full strength.

Suggestion: Over 2.75 @ 1.84

German Bundesliga 1
Bayern Munchen vs. Borussia Dortmund (Saturday 5.30pm)
BT Sport ESPN
In years past this would have easily been our top game of the weekend, but with Bayern having a ten point lead over Leipzig back in second and Dortmund not even finding themselves in the top three there’s a bit less at stake than there has been. Ultimately there’s more at stake for the visitors than the hosts in terms of the league, especially as Real Madrid are immediately on the horizon at the Allianz for Bayern and they can afford to place more focus upon that enormous contest.

Dortmund are still alive and kicking in the Champions League too though, of course, with the small matter of free-scoring Monaco to contend with on Tuesday evening. Then it all boils down to this being the biggest current rivalry in Germany at the moment, which means that neither can just turn up without full attention. It should be a great watch.

Suggestion: Over 2.75 @ 1.81

English Premier League
Manchester City vs. Hull City (Saturday 3pm)
N/A
City had a go at Chelsea on Wednesday and were probably a little bit unfortunate to come away with nothing, while Hull were involved in a thrilling relegation battle with Middlesbrough that yielded six goals. Most models pointed towards an unders bet in that one, somewhat ignoring Middlesbrough’s desperate need for points, but this game looks more straightforward from a psychology perspective. City need a win with Arsenal and United hot on their heels for the final top four spot, while this is one of those games that Hull would be delighted with a draw from. The lines both look high upon first sight, but Hull have been porous on the road, although we think City could struggle for motivation to win by two plus.

Suggestion: Hull City +2.25 @ 1.81

English Premier League
Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal (Monday 8pm)
Sky Sports 1
The wheels came off Palace’s revival at St. Mary’s, with Allardyce’s side involved in a crazily open game that could have had more than the four goals it ended up with. The loss of Dann and Tomkins to injury certainly didn’t help them, while Cabaye being forced off at half time was also a real problem. All three are missing again here, while Arsenal continue to be without Cech, Koscielny and Ospina for an on-going defensive weakening. We think Allardyce’s few days on the training ground will be enough to tighten his side up and bring in an unders result.

Suggestion: Under 3 @ 1.80

Ones to Watch

English Premier League
Middlesbrough vs. Burnley (Saturday 3pm)
N/A
Middlesbrough are into must-win territory and their habit of coming in under the total goals handicap could go out of the window now. The 4-2 loss at Hull came after a switch to a more aggressive 4-4-2 formation and the likelihood is that it holds for the visit of Burnley.

Suggestion: Over 2 @ 1.88

English Championship
Sheffield Wednesday vs. Newcastle United (Saturday 5.30pm)
Sky Sports 1
Newcastle survived some refereeing controversy to take a crucial win over Burton in midweek, while Wednesday steadied their ship with a 0-2 success at Rotherham. Both still have a huge amount to play for and both would probably accept a draw from this meeting. It should be a tactical one.

Suggestion: Newcastle United 0 @ 1.75 and Under 2.5 @ 1.78

Scottish Premiership
Aberdeen vs. Rangers (Sunday 12.30pm)
Sky Sports 2
Rangers’ form in the last weeks has almost ended their chance of a top-two finish, but they could cause Aberdeen some jitters if they manage to get a win here. There’s no real reason for either to settle and there’ll be a lot of edge, so the overs is on.

Suggestion: Over 2.5 @ 1.98

Turkish Super Lig
Istanbul Basaksehir vs. Galatasaray (Monday 6pm)
Bet365
Both of these teams are just about hanging on in the title race, with Basaksehir trailing Besiktas by five and Galatasaray behind by ten. It’s tough to argue with the hosts being quarter-goal favourites, but given how tight this could be we see some value in going on the unders.

Suggestion: Under 2.75 @ 1.91

Greek Super League
PAOK vs. Panathinaikos (Sunday 5pm)
N/A
Panathinaikos’ managerial change is really paying dividends, with the capital club now unbeaten in five and having taken 13 points in that time. They trail PAOK by one point with three games of the regular season remaining and the hosts are also on fire. This is too close to split.

Suggestion: N/A

*Odds accurate at time of writing

Weekend Review 04/04/17

Highlights 

English Premier League
Arsenal 2-2 Manchester City (Sunday 4pm)
Much of the talk in the aftermath of this game has been about just how poor both sides were, but we prefer to focus on how entertaining the overall contest was. Guardiola bamboozled some in the media with his decision to bring in Navas for Toure, but most ended up disappointed when the Spaniard simply took up a position at right-back due to Sagna and Zabaleta not being considered completely ready to start and Fernandinho being well capable of moving back into midfield. In the end City threw away two winning positions to take a deserved draw, which gave us a +1.

In truth, once the first goal was scored we still had more faith in our Over 2.75 suggestion than our City DNB suggestion, because Arsenal’s comeback record is just so good. Sotdoc puts it better than we ever could, but even at 1-2 heading into the break it was always set up for the home side to make another comeback. Although the position was opposed to ours, there was a huge edge to be had on backing Arsenal in the Asian Handicap market at half time. Once they equalised the shock was that we saw no further scoring!

Suggestion: Manchester City DNB @ 1.70 and Over 2.75 @ 1.78
Actual Outcome: 2-2 (+1)
Fair Outcome: 2-2 (+1)

English Premier League
Liverpool 3-1 Everton (Saturday 12.30pm)
In our pre-match analysis we criticised the market a little bit for weighting Liverpool’s negative team news less harshly than Everton’s, but by the time the final whistle blew this was proven to be very much the right call. In all honesty we didn’t expect Ronald Koeman to be so drastic with his reaction to losing Coleman, Funes Mori, Schneiderlin and McCarthy during the international break and still don’t understand why the likes of Barry and Mirallas didn’t feature from the start, but we can’t argue with the 3-1.

Liverpool took an early lead through Mane, who continues to shine in the big games but was unfortunately injured here, and even when Everton equalised from a corner we felt like it was a big ask to end up with anything more than a push for our suggestion. Despite missing Henderson and Lallana the hosts had a great balance to their play and the front three really turned it on, though were greatly helped by the visitors’ decision to change formation too late into their preparations.

Suggestion: Everton +1 @ 1.72
Actual Outcome: 3-1 (-1)
Fair Outcome: 3-1 (-1)

Italian Serie A
Napoli 1-1 Juventus (Sunday 7.45pm)
Juventus have a habit of doing just enough when the occasion demands it, and this was a reason why we were happy to take Napoli DNB before the game. Even when the visitors took an early lead through Khedira we knew they would simply try and sit for the 1-0, which would always give us the chance of a push. Given the quality of chances the hosts were able to create it would have been a real shame had they failed to find an equaliser.

The two meet here again in midweek for the second leg of the Coppa Italia semi-final and Napoli have to be the aggressors again with Juventus leading 1-3, so that should be a very similar sort of contest. In terms of Serie A this left the door open for Lazio, Atalanta and Inter, but only the former two benefitted as Inter surprisingly lost to Sampdoria.

Suggestion: Napoli DNB @ 1.80
Actual Outcome: 1-1 (0)
Fair Outcome: 1-1 (0) 

Dutch Eredivisie
Ajax 2-1 Feyenoord (Sunday 1.30pm)
A howitzer of a free kick from Schone after just one minute set the tone for this one (it’s well worth checking out on YouTube if you haven’t seen it already), as Ajax narrowed the gap at the top to just three points to set up a thrilling end to the Eredivisie season. Feyenoord’s plan revolved around keeping it tight and taking the draw that would have kept them in a supreme position at the summit, but once behind they lost star striker Jorgensen after just 11 minutes and it looked a huge ask from there. Ajax should have won by a much clearer margin, though Feyenoord did only equalise in stoppage time and were never really in it in terms of the handicap suggestion.

Suggestion: Feyenoord +0.5 @ 1.96
Actual Outcome: 2-1 (-1)
Fair Outcome: 3-0 (-1)

Portuguese Primeira Liga
Benfica 1-1 Porto (Saturday 8.30pm)
A similar game to the last began in relatively similar circumstances, with the hosts grabbing an early lead from the penalty spot. However, second-placed Porto were able to fight back through the returning Pereira and were then thankful to Casillas for two huge saves to keep them level. The veteran ‘keeper rolled back the years to keep his side alive in the title race, denying Jonas and Mitroglou from close range to ensure Porto got the draw they craved. Benfica probably deserved to win it, but a draw leaves the Primeira set up for a superb end to the season.

Suggestion: Porto +0.25 @ 1.81
Actual Outcome: 1-1 (+0.5)
Fair Outcome: 2-1 (-1)

Ones to Watch

German Bundesliga 1
Hertha BSC 1-3 Hoffenheim (Friday 7.30pm)
Hoffenheim jumped ahead of Dortmund into third place by taking an excellent win from an entertaining contest in Berlin. The high tempo of the game combined with the tactical approaches of both sides meant that the unders prediction looked in danger from the outset and it was a deserved loser.

Suggestion: Under 2.5 @ 1.80
Actual Outcome: 1-3 (-1)
Fair Outcome: 1-3 (-1) 

English Championship
Reading 1-0 Leeds United (Saturday 5.30pm)
We were a little harsher done by in this one, with Reading not taking enough of their chances despite being in full control from the first half onwards. Leeds almost did enough to score, but it’s hard to make a case for this being any more than a two-goal contest.

Suggestion: Over 2 @ 1.78
Actual Outcome: 1-0 (-1)
Fair Outcome: 2-0 (0) 

French Ligue 1
Nice 2-1 Bordeaux (Sunday 8pm)
This was one of those games where the score ended up being “the wrong way around”, with Bordeaux having the better opportunities throughout but Nice ending up with a narrow and undeserved victory. Results elsewhere mean that this effectively guarantees them a Champions League berth, which is a great achievement.

Suggestion: Bordeaux +0.25 @ 1.96
Actual Outcome: 2-1 (-1)
Fair Outcome: 1-2 (+1)

German Bundesliga 2
Hannover 96 2-0 Union Berlin (Saturday 12pm)
The hosts got their promotion bid back on track thanks to a bit of a new manager boost, deservedly beating rivals Union but being slightly flattered by the outcome. It was incredibly tight throughout with both sides focusing on defence ahead of attack, meaning that chances were at a premium.

Suggestion: Union Berlin +0.25 @ 1.93
Actual Outcome: 2-0 (-1)
Fair Outcome: 1-0 (-1)

Austrian Bundesliga
Rheindorf Altach 0-5 Salzburg (Sunday 3.30pm)
Salzburg again proved that when fully motivated they are far, far better than any of the other teams in Austria. On paper this had the look of a very dangerous away game at this stage of the season, but there was only ever one team in it from the start.

Suggestion: Salzburg -1 @ 1.99
Actual Outcome: 0-5 (+1)
Fair Outcome: 0-3 (+1)

11 Suggestions
Total Actual Outcome: -3.5
Total Fair Outcome: -2

P.S. The previous Weekend Review was not published due to the international break, so here is a full breakdown of the results:

English Premier League
Manchester City 1-1 Liverpool (Sunday 4.30pm)
Suggestion: Liverpool +0.5 @ 1.95
Actual Outcome: 1-1 (+1)
Fair Outcome: 3-3 (+1) 

Spanish Primera Division
Atletico Madrid 3-1 Sevilla (Sunday 3.15pm)
Suggestion: Atletico -0.75 @ 1.88 and Under 2.75 @ 1.83
Actual Outcome: 3-1 (0)
Fair Outcome: 3-0 (+0.5) 

French Ligue 1
PSG 2-1 Olympique Lyonnais (Sunday 8pm)
Suggestion: Olympique Lyonnais +1.25 @ 1.88
Actual Outcome: 2-1 (+0.5)
Fair Outcome: 2-2 (+1)

English Championship
Sheffield Wednesday 0-2 Reading (Friday 7.45pm)
Suggestion: Over 2.25 @ 1.90
Actual Outcome: 0-2 (-0.5)
Fair Outcome: 1-1 (-0.5) 

English Championship
Leeds United 2-0 Brighton & Hove Albion (Saturday 5.30pm)
Suggestion: Under 2.25 @ 1.86
Actual Outcome: 2-0 (+0.5)
Fair Outcome: 2-1 (-1)

English Premier League
AFC Bournemouth 2-0 Swansea City (Saturday 5.30pm)
Suggestion: Over 2.75 @ 1.95
Actual Outcome: 2-0 (-1)
Fair Outcome: 1-0 (-1) 

Italian Serie A
Torino 2-2 Internazionale (Saturday 5pm)
Suggestion: Internazionale -0.25 @ 1.80
Actual Outcome: 2-2 (-0.5)
Fair Outcome: 2-2 (-0.5) 

Scottish Premiership
Aberdeen 2-0 Hearts (Saturday 12.15pm)
Suggestion: Aberdeen -0.5 @ 1.80
Actual Outcome: 2-0 (+1)
Fair Outcome: 3-0 (+1) 

Greek Super League
Panathinaikos 1-0 Olympiakos (Sunday 5.30pm)
Suggestion: Panathinaikos -0.25 @ 1.96
Actual Outcome: 1-0 (+1)
Fair Outcome: 2-0 (+1)

Greek Super League
PAOK 1-0 Panionios (Sunday 1pm)
Suggestion: Panionios +1 @ 1.90
Actual Outcome: 1-0 (0)
Fair Outcome: 1-1 (+1) 

11 Suggestions
Total Actual Outcome: +2
Total Fair Outcome: +2.5