Weekend Review 04/04/17


English Premier League
Arsenal 2-2 Manchester City (Sunday 4pm)
Much of the talk in the aftermath of this game has been about just how poor both sides were, but we prefer to focus on how entertaining the overall contest was. Guardiola bamboozled some in the media with his decision to bring in Navas for Toure, but most ended up disappointed when the Spaniard simply took up a position at right-back due to Sagna and Zabaleta not being considered completely ready to start and Fernandinho being well capable of moving back into midfield. In the end City threw away two winning positions to take a deserved draw, which gave us a +1.

In truth, once the first goal was scored we still had more faith in our Over 2.75 suggestion than our City DNB suggestion, because Arsenal’s comeback record is just so good. Sotdoc puts it better than we ever could, but even at 1-2 heading into the break it was always set up for the home side to make another comeback. Although the position was opposed to ours, there was a huge edge to be had on backing Arsenal in the Asian Handicap market at half time. Once they equalised the shock was that we saw no further scoring!

Suggestion: Manchester City DNB @ 1.70 and Over 2.75 @ 1.78
Actual Outcome: 2-2 (+1)
Fair Outcome: 2-2 (+1)

English Premier League
Liverpool 3-1 Everton (Saturday 12.30pm)
In our pre-match analysis we criticised the market a little bit for weighting Liverpool’s negative team news less harshly than Everton’s, but by the time the final whistle blew this was proven to be very much the right call. In all honesty we didn’t expect Ronald Koeman to be so drastic with his reaction to losing Coleman, Funes Mori, Schneiderlin and McCarthy during the international break and still don’t understand why the likes of Barry and Mirallas didn’t feature from the start, but we can’t argue with the 3-1.

Liverpool took an early lead through Mane, who continues to shine in the big games but was unfortunately injured here, and even when Everton equalised from a corner we felt like it was a big ask to end up with anything more than a push for our suggestion. Despite missing Henderson and Lallana the hosts had a great balance to their play and the front three really turned it on, though were greatly helped by the visitors’ decision to change formation too late into their preparations.

Suggestion: Everton +1 @ 1.72
Actual Outcome: 3-1 (-1)
Fair Outcome: 3-1 (-1)

Italian Serie A
Napoli 1-1 Juventus (Sunday 7.45pm)
Juventus have a habit of doing just enough when the occasion demands it, and this was a reason why we were happy to take Napoli DNB before the game. Even when the visitors took an early lead through Khedira we knew they would simply try and sit for the 1-0, which would always give us the chance of a push. Given the quality of chances the hosts were able to create it would have been a real shame had they failed to find an equaliser.

The two meet here again in midweek for the second leg of the Coppa Italia semi-final and Napoli have to be the aggressors again with Juventus leading 1-3, so that should be a very similar sort of contest. In terms of Serie A this left the door open for Lazio, Atalanta and Inter, but only the former two benefitted as Inter surprisingly lost to Sampdoria.

Suggestion: Napoli DNB @ 1.80
Actual Outcome: 1-1 (0)
Fair Outcome: 1-1 (0) 

Dutch Eredivisie
Ajax 2-1 Feyenoord (Sunday 1.30pm)
A howitzer of a free kick from Schone after just one minute set the tone for this one (it’s well worth checking out on YouTube if you haven’t seen it already), as Ajax narrowed the gap at the top to just three points to set up a thrilling end to the Eredivisie season. Feyenoord’s plan revolved around keeping it tight and taking the draw that would have kept them in a supreme position at the summit, but once behind they lost star striker Jorgensen after just 11 minutes and it looked a huge ask from there. Ajax should have won by a much clearer margin, though Feyenoord did only equalise in stoppage time and were never really in it in terms of the handicap suggestion.

Suggestion: Feyenoord +0.5 @ 1.96
Actual Outcome: 2-1 (-1)
Fair Outcome: 3-0 (-1)

Portuguese Primeira Liga
Benfica 1-1 Porto (Saturday 8.30pm)
A similar game to the last began in relatively similar circumstances, with the hosts grabbing an early lead from the penalty spot. However, second-placed Porto were able to fight back through the returning Pereira and were then thankful to Casillas for two huge saves to keep them level. The veteran ‘keeper rolled back the years to keep his side alive in the title race, denying Jonas and Mitroglou from close range to ensure Porto got the draw they craved. Benfica probably deserved to win it, but a draw leaves the Primeira set up for a superb end to the season.

Suggestion: Porto +0.25 @ 1.81
Actual Outcome: 1-1 (+0.5)
Fair Outcome: 2-1 (-1)

Ones to Watch

German Bundesliga 1
Hertha BSC 1-3 Hoffenheim (Friday 7.30pm)
Hoffenheim jumped ahead of Dortmund into third place by taking an excellent win from an entertaining contest in Berlin. The high tempo of the game combined with the tactical approaches of both sides meant that the unders prediction looked in danger from the outset and it was a deserved loser.

Suggestion: Under 2.5 @ 1.80
Actual Outcome: 1-3 (-1)
Fair Outcome: 1-3 (-1) 

English Championship
Reading 1-0 Leeds United (Saturday 5.30pm)
We were a little harsher done by in this one, with Reading not taking enough of their chances despite being in full control from the first half onwards. Leeds almost did enough to score, but it’s hard to make a case for this being any more than a two-goal contest.

Suggestion: Over 2 @ 1.78
Actual Outcome: 1-0 (-1)
Fair Outcome: 2-0 (0) 

French Ligue 1
Nice 2-1 Bordeaux (Sunday 8pm)
This was one of those games where the score ended up being “the wrong way around”, with Bordeaux having the better opportunities throughout but Nice ending up with a narrow and undeserved victory. Results elsewhere mean that this effectively guarantees them a Champions League berth, which is a great achievement.

Suggestion: Bordeaux +0.25 @ 1.96
Actual Outcome: 2-1 (-1)
Fair Outcome: 1-2 (+1)

German Bundesliga 2
Hannover 96 2-0 Union Berlin (Saturday 12pm)
The hosts got their promotion bid back on track thanks to a bit of a new manager boost, deservedly beating rivals Union but being slightly flattered by the outcome. It was incredibly tight throughout with both sides focusing on defence ahead of attack, meaning that chances were at a premium.

Suggestion: Union Berlin +0.25 @ 1.93
Actual Outcome: 2-0 (-1)
Fair Outcome: 1-0 (-1)

Austrian Bundesliga
Rheindorf Altach 0-5 Salzburg (Sunday 3.30pm)
Salzburg again proved that when fully motivated they are far, far better than any of the other teams in Austria. On paper this had the look of a very dangerous away game at this stage of the season, but there was only ever one team in it from the start.

Suggestion: Salzburg -1 @ 1.99
Actual Outcome: 0-5 (+1)
Fair Outcome: 0-3 (+1)

11 Suggestions
Total Actual Outcome: -3.5
Total Fair Outcome: -2

P.S. The previous Weekend Review was not published due to the international break, so here is a full breakdown of the results:

English Premier League
Manchester City 1-1 Liverpool (Sunday 4.30pm)
Suggestion: Liverpool +0.5 @ 1.95
Actual Outcome: 1-1 (+1)
Fair Outcome: 3-3 (+1) 

Spanish Primera Division
Atletico Madrid 3-1 Sevilla (Sunday 3.15pm)
Suggestion: Atletico -0.75 @ 1.88 and Under 2.75 @ 1.83
Actual Outcome: 3-1 (0)
Fair Outcome: 3-0 (+0.5) 

French Ligue 1
PSG 2-1 Olympique Lyonnais (Sunday 8pm)
Suggestion: Olympique Lyonnais +1.25 @ 1.88
Actual Outcome: 2-1 (+0.5)
Fair Outcome: 2-2 (+1)

English Championship
Sheffield Wednesday 0-2 Reading (Friday 7.45pm)
Suggestion: Over 2.25 @ 1.90
Actual Outcome: 0-2 (-0.5)
Fair Outcome: 1-1 (-0.5) 

English Championship
Leeds United 2-0 Brighton & Hove Albion (Saturday 5.30pm)
Suggestion: Under 2.25 @ 1.86
Actual Outcome: 2-0 (+0.5)
Fair Outcome: 2-1 (-1)

English Premier League
AFC Bournemouth 2-0 Swansea City (Saturday 5.30pm)
Suggestion: Over 2.75 @ 1.95
Actual Outcome: 2-0 (-1)
Fair Outcome: 1-0 (-1) 

Italian Serie A
Torino 2-2 Internazionale (Saturday 5pm)
Suggestion: Internazionale -0.25 @ 1.80
Actual Outcome: 2-2 (-0.5)
Fair Outcome: 2-2 (-0.5) 

Scottish Premiership
Aberdeen 2-0 Hearts (Saturday 12.15pm)
Suggestion: Aberdeen -0.5 @ 1.80
Actual Outcome: 2-0 (+1)
Fair Outcome: 3-0 (+1) 

Greek Super League
Panathinaikos 1-0 Olympiakos (Sunday 5.30pm)
Suggestion: Panathinaikos -0.25 @ 1.96
Actual Outcome: 1-0 (+1)
Fair Outcome: 2-0 (+1)

Greek Super League
PAOK 1-0 Panionios (Sunday 1pm)
Suggestion: Panionios +1 @ 1.90
Actual Outcome: 1-0 (0)
Fair Outcome: 1-1 (+1) 

11 Suggestions
Total Actual Outcome: +2
Total Fair Outcome: +2.5

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