Weekend Review 19/04/17

Highlights 

English Premier League
Manchester United 2-0 Chelsea (Sunday 4pm)
Jose struck again, but at least our prediction that Chelsea would swing to be favourites before kick-off came true! The visitors were clearly unsettled by the loss of Courtois to injury during midweek and Alonso falling ill during the warm-up, but let’s not forget that this was a Manchester United side without Jones, Mata, Rooney and Smalling. In addition to this Ibrahimovic and Mkhitaryan started on the bench, as the hosts switched to a dynamic 3-5-2 to combat the 3-4-2-1 threat of Chelsea.

This proved to be a masterstroke, with Conte’s side creating nothing more than a Good Chance (~15% conversion) and Fairly Good Chance (~8% conversion) during the contest. United fashioned just enough opportunities to have earned the win, though 2-0 flattered them a bit. The impact this result had on the rest of the league was not as big as the media intimated, with Chelsea still firmly in the box seat for the title, but it does keep United alive in the hunt for top four. Their schedule is tough but this result should give them the belief to keep chasing down City, who are four points ahead with a similar goal difference having played a game more.

Suggestion: Chelsea DNB @ 2.07
Actual Outcome: 2-0 (-1)
Fair Outcome: 1-0 (-1)

Italian Serie A
Internazionale 2-2 Milan (Saturday 11.30am)
A bit more bravery on the goals would have been the difference between a negative and positive weekend for us, because we were inches away from suggesting the overs. While there was not a huge amount on the line this was one of the best Milan derbies in recent times, with the visitors fighting back from 2-0 to take an undeserved point. The tempo was relentless from the outset and it was no surprise to see two goals by half time, while the derby factor meant that Milan had to pile forward after the interval.

Inter were left ruing two missed chances for Perisic shortly after the break, but Milan didn’t pull one back until the 83rd minute and so they still got very close to getting the job done. In terms of the bigger picture in Serie A this kept Atalanta in the box seat for fifth and ensured Inter have now gone four games without a win, following a run of form that had put them into contention for a top three finish.

Suggestion: Milan +0.5 @ 1.89
Actual Outcome: 2-2 (+1)
Fair Outcome: 2-1 (-1) 

English Championship
Newcastle United 1-1 Leeds United (Friday 7.45pm)
This seems like a long time ago now, after the Championship played another full round on Monday, but it was notable for corners above all else. Newcastle ended with 19, while Leeds recorded none, but crucially the final score read 1-1. In truth the goal line was never in significant danger, but the hosts played well and maintained a constant level of pressure that meant a two-goal outcome was always fair enough.

However, as our Analyst Fair Score shows, 2-0 would have been a much more suitable result given the pattern of play. Before Wood equalised the visitors had managed just a couple of poor chances with shots from range, while Darlow was only called into action to make one save of any significance. On the other hand Green had a very busy evening, but was never really asked to do too much (though he did make everything look pretty!)

Suggestion: Over 2.25 @ 1.88
Actual Outcome: 1-1 (-0.5)
Fair Outcome: 2-0 (-0.5)

Italian Serie A
Roma 1-1 Atalanta (Saturday 2pm)
Oh Roma. In our preview we spoke about how much they have hurt us this season but how they seemed to be in a new zone psychologically, although we always appreciated that this Atalanta side would provide them with a stern test. Still, a deserved 1-1 result was about the worst outcome possible and while the hosts edged the chances they didn’t do enough to have earned a win. It took them too long to wake up and rise to the occasion, by which time they were already a goal behind and facing a team with real belief. With Juventus winning again this was the weekend that saw Roma finally give up the ghost in the title race, though they’ve never really been in it.

Suggestion: Roma -1 @ 1.93 and Over 3 @ 1.84
Actual Outcome: 1-1 (-2)
Fair Outcome: 1-1 (-2)

English Premier League
Middlesbrough 1-2 Arsenal (Monday 8pm)
One of Middlesbrough’s best performances for a while was not enough to get them any points, with Arsenal’s superior offensive strength and a new formation seeing them through in the end. Ultimately the visitors did just about enough to deserve the points and the game was always a good candidate to end with three goals, as Middlesbrough cannot afford to settle for draws at this stage of the campaign. We expect to see them involved in more games where both teams score and we see overs suggestions coming in, but the market will probably catch on to them soon enough.

Suggestion: Over 2.5 @ 1.80
Actual Outcome: 1-2 (+1)
Fair Outcome: 1-2 (+1)

Ones to Watch

Portuguese Primeira Liga
Sporting Braga 1-1 Porto (Saturday 8.30pm)
This always looked like Porto’s most difficult remaining fixture, and so it proved as Braga deservedly held them. It could have been worse for the visitors, who conceded a penalty that was missed before the break when already behind, but they missed a great chance to win it late on.

Suggestion: Over 2.25 @ 1.81
Actual Outcome: 1-1 (-0.5)
Fair Outcome: 1-1 (-0.5)

English Championship
Birmingham City 0-2 Burton Albion (Monday 3pm)
This game proved to be the end of Zola at Birmingham, with the Italian being a crazy appointment in the first place when Rowett was doing so well. The visitors may not have been worth a two-goal margin but they certainly deserved the win, taking full advantage of the disharmony.

Suggestion: Burton Albion +0.25 @ 2.06
Actual Outcome: 0-2 (+1)
Fair Outcome: 1-2 (+1)

English Championship
Blackburn Rovers 1-1 Bristol City (Monday 3pm)
A super goal from Abraham earned Bristol a point that pushed them further away from trouble, though they really should have taken all three. We had earmarked them on a plus handicap early on this week, with Blackburn on a real slide. In the end it got us a half.

Suggestion: Bristol City +0.25 @ 1.76
Actual Outcome: 1-1 (+0.5)
Fair Outcome: 0-1 (+1)

German Bundesliga 2
Hannover 96 1-0 Eintracht Braunschweig (Saturday 12pm)
Prior to this kicking off eight of the last ten games involving these teams had ended under 2.5 goals, which made the line hard to fathom. As it was Hannover took a deserved win, though our Fair Score has them one step closer to the line than the Actual Score.

Suggestion: Under 2.5 @ 1.89
Actual Outcome: 1-0 (+1)
Fair Outcome: 2-0 (+1)

German Bundesliga 1
Hoffenheim 5-3 Borussia Monchengladbach (Saturday 2.30pm)
This was one of those games where everything seemed to find the net and unfortunately it ended up favouring Hoffenheim and being very bad for our Asian Handicap suggestion. Gladbach were 2-0 down pretty early and actually fought back to 2-2 before getting too carried away and being picked off.

Suggestion: Borussia Monchengladbach +0.75 @ 1.80
Actual Outcome: 5-3 (-1)
Fair Outcome: 3-2 (-0.5)

11 Suggestions
Actual Outcome: -0.5
Fair Outcome: -1.5

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