Weekend Review 15/05/17


English Premier League
Crystal Palace 3-0 Hull City (Sunday 12pm)
Like Middlesbrough before them, Hull bowed out of the Premier League with a whimper and were hammered by Palace here. The hosts got off to the perfect start when an error from Ranocchia gifted Zaha the opener and they never looked like giving it up from there. Hull’s best hope here was to play on the nerves of the home crowd, but such a calamitous beginning made this impossible and the atmosphere was excellent throughout the afternoon as Benteke, Milivojevic and van Aanholt killed off Silva’s team with relative ease.

Hull only managed to create a solitary Very Good Chance (~25% conversion rate) in a fairly insipid display, even a double substitution at half time not making much difference. We said we would back the overs if Swansea did the business at Sunderland on Saturday, because it would leave Hull in a do-or-die situation, but in the end it was Palace who saw us comfortably home. The visitors kept throwing caution to the wind until it went 3-0 and then heads dropped as their relegation dawned. Silva did a great job to keep them alive this long and we’re fully expecting to see him at this level again next season.

Suggestion: Hull City +0.5 @ 1.87 and Over 2.5 @ 1.93
Actual Outcome: 4-0 (0)
Fair Outcome: 3-0 (0)

English Premier League
Sunderland 0-2 Swansea City (Saturday 3pm)
This win at a hostile Stadium of Light saw Swansea safe, with too much pressure applied to Hull, who had to play a day later. Clement deserves huge credit for reorganising a talented but fragile squad after the disastrous reign of Bradley, who had no notion of to stem the side of chances that his team was conceding. With a lots of shape work and the gradual restoration of belief Swansea have become what they should have been all season, a solid team capable of relying on their gifted attackers for points.

The decision to change to a diamond and to move Sigurdsson inside was a real difference maker and this was another professional performance and another game under the natural goal line. As for Sunderland, they were rightly jeered off the field after a calamitous first half and woeful season, like Hull just managing to create a single Very Good Chance here and relatively little else besides. A big summer for the Welshmen awaits, but we fear for Sunderland and Moyes in the Championship.

Suggestion: Under 2.75 @1.85
Actual Outcome: 0-2 (+1)
Fair Outcome: 0-1 (+1) 

English Premier League
Tottenham Hotspur 2-1 Manchester United (Sunday 4.30pm)
This was another instance where Pochettino’s side lived up to the occasion (“chokers”, really?), bidding farewell to White Hart Lane with an excellent team performance that produced a fully deserved three points. Wembley beckons in 2018/19 and it will be interesting to see if they can be as strong at that venue as they have been at their real home, but for this particular game they did have completely pliable opponents.

After full time Mourinho openly admitted that he’d rather not deal with any more league games this season – though United still have a couple more to go yet – before pulling his now trademark move of cutting a live television interview short. We ended up with a nice win here overall on our two suggestions, though according to the Analyst Fair Score there was a good slice of fortune involved! Spurs are now guaranteed second, while United will finish sixth.

Suggestion: Tottenham Hotspur -0.75 @ 1.94 and Over 2.5 @ 2.02
Actual Outcome: 2-1 (+1.5)
Fair Outcome: 2-0 (0)

Spanish Primera Division
Las Palmas 1-4 Barcelona (Sunday 7pm)
In the Weekend Preview we suggested we were tempted by the underdogs in this one, due to the “large looking” handicap. However, Barcelona have burned us enough in recent times to take a step back and avoid any involvement at all. As it turned out the market pegged it perfectly, although there was a significant amount of controversy here with Digne somehow not sent off very early on for the visitors. A three-goal margin of victory was definitely flattering, but this is a team who have been “outscoring” their xG with good regularity of late – something that doesn’t really happen by chance. In the end we were glad to be out of it, though we wish we’d adopted the same stance for the Real game…

Suggestion: N/A
Actual Outcome: 1-4 (N/A)
Fair Outcome: 2-3 (N/A)

Spanish Primera Division
Real Madrid 4-1 Sevilla (Sunday 7pm)
Our trepidation in taking the unders in a game that pitted a motivated Real against a potentially demotivated Sevilla proved to be fair, with the goal line beaten in the end. Both sides adopted an open approach, the visitors given no choice in the matter after falling behind quite early, but five goals in the contest was a bit of a stretch. However, Real took a massive leap towards winning the title with another resounding result after making a number of changes to the team, showing once again that they are able to balance La Liga with the Champions League.

Suggestion: Under 4.5 @ 1.88
Actual Outcome: 4-1 (-1)
Fair Outcome: 2-1 (+1)

Ones to Follow

Dutch Eredivisie
Feyenoord 3-1 Heracles (Sunday 1.30pm)
Feyenoord secured their first title since 1998/99 thanks to a Kuijt hat trick, made all the more impressive by the fact it came from midfield. The veteran led his team over the line with yet another superb display and meant that we got a little bit fortunate with this one.

Suggestion: Heracles +2.25 @ 1.86
Actual Outcome: 3-1 (+0.5)
Fair Outcome: 3-0 (-1)

Dutch Eredivisie
Willem II 1-3 Ajax (Sunday 1.30pm)
Ajax did what they had to do but came up short due to Feyenoord’s result in Rotterdam, with the capital side consigned to the runners-up spot. The visitors’ clinical finishing ability was the difference here and a two-goal margin of victory was completely fair, meaning we escaped with a push.

Suggestion: Willem II +2 @ 1.86
Actual Outcome: 1-3 (0)
Fair Outcome: 1-3 (0)

Italian Serie A
Roma 3-1 Juventus (Sunday 7.45pm)
The hosts kept their slim title hopes alive with an impressive win, although Juventus made some fairly significant rotations after their Champions League semi exploits in midweek. Our suggestion for an “unders” bet was a little bit unlucky to be a loser in the end, but only a little bit.

Suggestion: Under 3 @ 1.86
Actual Outcome: 3-1 (-1)
Fair Outcome: 2-1 (0)

Italian Serie A
Torino 0-5 Napoli (Sunday 2pm)
Napoli kept the pressure on Roma with a crushing win in Torino, making a mockery of the hosts’ strong record in front of their own fans. Napoli are displaying Monaco-like finishing ability in this second half of the season, with the front three of Callejon, Insigne and Mertens almost unstoppable.

Suggestion: Napoli -1 @ 1.87
Actual Outcome: 0-5 (+1)
Fair Outcome: 0-4 (+1) 

German Bundesliga 1
RB Leipzig 4-5 Bayern Munchen (Saturday 2.30pm)
One of the games of the season saw Leipzig lead 1-0, 2-1, 3-1 and 4-2 before three goals in the final six minutes swung it Bayern’s way. We thought that the visitors would be fully motivated to beat a narrow handicap here but Leipzig showed they are the real deal.

Suggestion: Bayern Munchen -0.5 @ 1.96
Actual Outcome: 4-5 (+1)
Fair Outcome: 3-4 (+1)

11 Suggestions
Actual Outcome: +3
Fair Outcome: +3

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