Weekend Preview 29/09/17

Highlights

English Premier League
Chelsea vs Manchester City (Saturday 5:30pm)
BT Sport 1
Chelsea have been quietly going about their business after the surprise opening day defeat to Burnley and sit 3 points behind their top of the table visitors who have won all but one of their games. The away side have been improving all the time and look a real force so far.

Manchester City have been dealt two injury blows this week,  with Sergio Aguero breaking ribs in a car crash, while Mendy is expected to miss the rest of the season with an ACL injury. Both leave them weaker in their respective positions. David Luiz is banned for Chelsea with Christensen likely to step in as a weaker alternative. Chelsea also have a days less rest after their away Champions League tie.

The AH line has been set at Draw No Bet and this is likely to be where the slight edge is with Chelsea. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see this line move with news of Aguero’s injury to -0.25 and Chelsea will be confident of at least avoiding defeat.

Suggestion: Chelsea DNB @ 1.880

Germany Bundesliga

Hertha Berlin vs Bayern Munich (Sunday 2:30pm)
BT Sport 2
German clubs have suffered badly in Europe this week, all 6 sides losing their games including both Hertha (at Ostersunds) and Bayern Munich (at Paris SG) – with the latter costing Carlo Ancelotti his job. It does seem like Ancelotti had lost favour with many Bayern fans and the players, with rumours of unrest rife. Willy Sagnol will give them a boost as Interim Manager.

Hertha have rotated their team in the last couple of games and should be able to welcome back Jarstein, Plattenhardt and Darida but with Ibisevic missing through suspension their attack is weakened. Bayern also have rested players to come back in such as Robben, Ribery, Hummels and Boateng but Neuer is a key absentee with Ulreich looking poor so far.

Hertha are likely to be ultra defensive and may sense some weakness in the Bayern Munich team. The lack of strikers means they are unlikely to be adventurous but with Bayern perhaps feeling that a win by any means will do, this could favour Hertha on the AH line.

Suggestion: Hertha Berlin +1.5 @ 1.862

Italy Serie A
Milan vs Roma (Sunday 5:00pm)
BT Sport 2
In contrast to the German sides, Italian teams fared well in Europe with both these sides picking up wins in midweek. Milan were slightly fortunate to overcome Rijeka at home but Roma should have been more comfortable on their long trip to Azerbaijan to face Qarabag.

Milan rested a few of their bigger players for the Europa League tie so Rodriguez, Biglia and Kalinic should all return and be fresh. Vincenzo Montella is coming under pressure after a couple of poor results with high expectations on the expensively assembled squad. Defeat in this game could leave the door open for Ancelotti to return to the club. Roma have a lack of attacking depth, with a few injuries but their strongest XI is available and they will be confident of counting their good start to the season, unbeaten since the opening day.

Milan have improved since last season but expectation seems to be weighing heavily on them and they have struggled against the better sides. Roma fall into this category and it’s likely had they not had such a long midweek trip they could even have been -0.25 favourites. The Draw No Bet line favours them.

Suggestion: Roma DNB @ 1.980

 

Ones to Watch

Portugal Primeira Liga
Sporting vs Porto (Sunday 7:15pm)
FreeSports
The top two clash in Portugal early in the season with both going very well after 5 games. Sporting lost 1-0 to Barcelona in midweek, limiting their opponents chances but seeing little of the ball. With 1 days less rest compared to Porto – who beat Monaco 3-0 away – this could be a key factor. Both sides have almost their first choice starting XI’s available and with a low goals line appropriately set in what is expected to be a tight clash, it looks like the value again lies on the AH line, with Porto drifting in to Draw No Bet and looking to have some value.

Suggestion: Porto DNB @ 1.990

Belgium First Division A
Anderlecht vs Standard Liege (Sunday 5:00pm)
Not on TV
Both these traditional big Belgian rivals have had terrible starts to the season. Anderlecht have already sacked their manager and defeat to Celtic in the Champions League in midweek has added to the already hostile atmosphere at the club. Standard have been faring even worse, with just 2 wins in 8 league matches this season – though back to back cup and league wins sees a slight improvement. They have some key players out through injury and suspension however and it’s hard to look past a large Anderlecht win, with AH and Goals lines both offering value.

Suggestion: Anderlecht -0.75 @ 1.990 AND Over 2.75 Goals @ 1.900

Dutch Eredivisie
Heerenveen vs Ajax (Sunday 1:30pm)
Sky Sports Mix
Heerenveen have started the season in excellent fashion, currently lying 2nd in the table and having already beaten PSV at home reasonably comfortably. Ajax on the other hand have struggled, exiting the Europa League and failing to beat Den Haag and Vitesse in their last 2 games. With a couple of injury problems as well it is surprising to see the AH line set where it is, with Ajax’s prestige likely to be having a big impact on this and Heerenveen more than capable of getting at least a point. However, there seems to be better value on the Unders line, with only 1 each of both these sides 6 games this season going over 3 goals.

Suggestion: Under 3 Goals @ 1.860

Norway Eliteserien
Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg (Sunday 7:00pm)
Not on TV
While this may seem like a slightly obscure clash, this has actually become a title decider in Norway. Rosenborg lead Sarpsborg by 9 points with 7 games remaining and a victory in this one would all but seal the title. Rosenborg haven’t been that impressive over the season, given their means compared to other sides in the Eliteserien, but they have improved in the past couple of months and were victorious over Vardar in the Europa League in midweek. This is likely to be Sarpsborg’s best ever season and they have a cup final to focus on as well, so they are unlikely to be too disheartened by a defeat while Rosenborg can finally have the motivation to turn in a good performance and show their superiority.

Suggestion: Rosenborg -0.75 @ 1.862

 

*Odds accurate at time of writing

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