English Premier League
Chelsea vs Manchester City (Saturday 5:30pm)
A tight game eventually hinged on the quality of Manchester City going forward but the key moment occurred in the 35th minute with Morata being forced off for Chelsea due to injury. It was clear that Chelsea lacked a Plan B, with Hazard playing further forward but unable to have the same effect from his usual deeper role.
Few quality chances were created over the course of the game but the better ones did fall to Manchester City who looked the more likely to grab a goal. That eventually came with just over 20 minutes left as De Bruyne fired an outstanding effort in from outside the box.
Chelsea rarely threatened after going behind and Manchester City proved to be surprisingly dominant as they looked more likely to add a 2nd goal than Chelsea did to get back into the game. Once Morata had departed it seemed Chelsea’s best hope was to hold on for a point but this didn’t happen.
Suggestion: Chelsea DNB @ 1.880
Actual Outcome: 0-1 (Loss)
Fair Outcome: 0-1 (Loss)
Hertha Berlin vs Bayern Munich (Sunday 2:30pm)
After the turmoils of the past week Bayern were looking to bounce back and prove a point following the miserable performance in Paris and Ancelotti’s subsequent sacking. All seemed to be going according to plan as goals from Hummels and Lewandowski gave them a commanding lead just 5 minutes into the 2nd half.
However, from that point some of this seasons frailties crept back into the side as they were punished by essentially the only 2 chances Hertha Berlin created throughout the entire game. Duda and Kalou scored in a frantic 5 minute spell to get Hertha back level and they then defended very well to earn a point at the end of the game.
Bayern created numerous chances, especially in the 1st half and were guilty of being wasteful and while they should have won this game they rarely looked like doing so by a two goal margin needed to beat the handicap. The Bavarian giants now sit 5 points behind Dortmund and while it is still early in the season, significant improvement is needed.
Suggestion: Hertha Berlin +1.5 @ 1.862
Actual Outcome: 2-2 (Win)
Fair Outcome: 1-2 (Win)
Italy Serie A
Milan vs Roma (Sunday 5:00pm)
Roma had surprisingly drifted to +0.25 outsiders in this game prior to kick off. The long trip from Azerbaijan was partially to blame for this but there was little in the way of breaking team news that moved the line. It was in the latter stages of the 2nd half that a tight game opened up and Roma were able to make their quality count.
The game was very close for over an hour and it was only during the last 20 minutes that chances started to come. Milan could have taken the lead – and had they done so it’s unlikely Roma would have beaten the Asian Handicap line – but instead it was Dzeko and then Florenzi who scored the goals to seal a very good away win.
Milan will feel they deserved to score but Roma defended well after going in front and never looked like giving up the lead they had worked so hard for. It brings further pressure on Montella and it now seems like a matter of time before he is replaced, though he did get a vote of confidence from the board after this defeat.
Suggestion: Roma DNB @ 1.980
Actual Outcome: 0-2 (Win)
Fair Outcome: 1-2 (Win)
Ones to Watch
Portugal Primeira Liga
Sporting vs Porto (Sunday 7:15pm)
This game ended goalless much to the surprise of those watching who saw Porto create a string of high quality chances during the 1st half. Aboubakar was the chief culprit in squandering these and Porto eventually had to settle for a solitary point when they really should have had all 3. Sporting were poor and rarely threatened, though they did defend much better in the 2nd half, but the value at DNB remained on Porto throughout the game, with Marega missing a Great Chance near the end. It’s likely 1 goal would have been the difference in this game, unfortunately it didn’t come.
Suggestion: Porto DNB @ 1.990
Actual Outcome: 0-0 (Push)
Fair Outcome: 0-1 (Win)
Belgium First Division A
Anderlecht vs Standard Liege (Sunday 5:00pm)
We provided two suggestions for this game, Anderlecht to win comfortably and Over 2.75 goals. While Anderlecht eventually prevailed, thanks to an 89th minute winner, this was the only goal of the game. Both sides were evenly matched for long spells and it wasn’t until around the hour mark that Anderlecht took control and started creating quality chances, only to spurn them all. They kept pushing but it wasn’t until Onyekuru scored a header with 1 minute left to get the win. Even after this Standard had their best – and only real chance of the match – with Luchkevych missing the chance to grab a share of the points.
Suggestion: Anderlecht -0.75 @ 1.990 AND Over 2.75 Goals @ 1.900
Actual Outcome: 1-0 (Half Win/Loss)
Fair Outcome: 1-0 (Half Win/Loss)
Heerenveen vs Ajax (Sunday 1:30pm)
Having spoken of Heerenveen’s excellent start to the season and Ajax’s own faltering campaign it’s ironic that the Amsterdam giants used this game to really show their quality. They destroyed Heerenveen and even at a 4-0 scoreline they had the quality chances to score more. Heerenveen were in the game until just before the break and had periods of pressure but 2 goals by Neres before half time not only killed their hopes but also made the suggested Under bet unlikely. This proved to be the case, though despite all the chances it wasn’t until Wober added the 4th with 7 minutes left that this one lost.
Suggestion: Under 3 Goals @ 1.860
Actual Outcome: 0-4 (Loss)
Fair Outcome: 0-4 (Loss)
Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg (Sunday 7:00pm)
While the result of this one is a slight surprise, what’s perhaps more surprising is the tempo and quality with which this one was played out. A win for Sarpsborg could have given them a realistic chance of a late challenge for the title but it seemed that both were content with a draw, Rosenborg putting minimal effort in and creating little while Sarpsborg did well to get back on level terms so quickly after falling behind. Rosenborg had plenty of the ball in the first half but ultimately did little with it and Sarpborg were well worth the draw they set out for.
Suggestion: Rosenborg -0.75 @ 1.862
Actual Outcome: 1-1 (Loss)
Fair Outcome: 1-1 (Loss)
Total Actual Outcome: -1.5
Total Fair Outcome: -0.5
*Odds accurate at time of writing