English Premier League
Liverpool vs Manchester United (Saturday 12:30pm)
With only one team really playing with the intention to score the Under 2.5 goal line looked safe in this one for long periods. While it was expected Mourinho would go with the intention of keeping things tight it was a surprise to see such a strong Manchester United team play quite so defensively. While Liverpool struggled to break them down they did have several high quality chances to break the deadlock and should have taken all 3 points, though it looked very unlikely they would ever beat the goal line by themselves.
Suggestion: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.941
Actual Outcome: 0-0 (Win)
Fair Outcome: 2-0 (Win)
Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig (Saturday 5:30pm)
Once Dortmund took the lead after just 4 minutes of this game it looked like this would be a real uphill battle to beat the generous Handicap given, but RB Leipzig turned things around very well, putting in an excellent performance to claim a deserved win and ensure Dortmund suffered their first home league defeat in 41 games, stretching back to April 2015. Leipzig had gone ahead before half time, and despite Dortmund being on top a penalty and red card early in the 2nd half gave Leipzig a comfortable cushion. A late red for the away team and a soft penalty made for a tense last few minutes but even had they conceded an equaliser RB Leipzig always looked likely to beat the +1 Handicap.
Suggestion: RB Leipzig +1 @ 2.085
Actual Outcome: 2-3 (Win)
Fair Outcome: 2-3 (Win)
Spain Primera Liga
Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona (Saturday 7:45pm)
A very close fought game deservedly ended in a draw with Barcelona coming close to snatching it in the 2nd half after Atletico Madrid had taken the lead then restricted the away side from creating much for long spells. The game had a very open start with good opportunities for Messi & Griezmann but soon settled and Saul gave the home side the lead with a terrific effort from outside the box on 20 minutes. Barcelona struggled create many clear cut chances but Messi hit the post with a free kick before Suarez headed an equaliser from close range with 10 minutes to play. In the latter stages Suarez came very close to poking home a ball across the 6 yard box and Messi had a free kick in the dying seconds well held by Oblak, giving a win on the Under Goal Line.
Suggestion: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.970
Actual Outcome: 1-1 (Win)
Fair Outcome: 1-1 (Win)
Ones to Watch
Italy Serie A
Internazionale vs Milan (Sunday 7:45pm)
A frantic derby between these two old rivals which piles the pressure on Milan manager Montella. While Inter fully deserved the win it took a dramatic finale to seal the victory. After a tight start Icardi gave Inter the lead, which they held until half time but Milan started the 2nd half brightly and eventually levelled through Suso. Icardi again put Inter ahead but an own goal by Handanovic brought parity again with 10 minutes to play. With the game heading for a draw and a half loss on the handicap Inter were awarded a penalty in stoppage time which Icardi scored to complete his hat trick and turn the half loss into a deserved full win.
Suggestion: Internazionale -0.25 @ 1.909
Actual Outcome: 3-2 (Win)
Fair Outcome: 2-1 (Win)
France Ligue 1
Lyon vs Monaco (Friday 7:45pm)
This was an end to end game with another last minute winner. An understrength Monaco attack and weakened Lyon defence pointed to goals and that’s exactly what happened with Lyon taking the lead in just the 11th minute having already hit the woodwork twice. It didn’t take long for Monaco to equalise with Rony Lopes getting on the scoresheet but Fekir scored to put Lyon ahead again only for Adama Traore to level again before half time. The 2nd half was much quieter with Monaco missing a Great Chance to win the match and this proved costly as deep into injury time Fekir drilled home a free kick from 25 yards, winning the game for Lyon and turning a half win into a disappointing loss.
Suggestion: Monaco +0.25 @ 1.89
Actual Outcome: 3-2 (Loss)
Fair Outcome: 2-2 (Half Win)
Derby County vs Nottingham Forest (Sunday 1:15pm)
Sky Sports Football
Perhaps the most disappointing loss of the weekend came in this clash between two East Midlands rivals. Derby took the lead after just 25 seconds, clearly pointing to an Overs game, especially with how open Nottingham Forest usually are. Vydra almost added his 2nd and Murphy and McKay were close to equalising but early in the 2nd half Nugent went through to double Derby’s lead – meaning another goal in the final 40 minutes would have meant a win. Unfortunately Derby then decided this was enough and the match became much tighter with Forest not able to create any high quality chances after this. While Forest deserved a draw there weren’t really enough chances to justify an Overs pick, despite the early goal.
Suggestion: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.88
Actual Outcome: 2-0 (Loss)
Fair Outcome: 1-1 (Loss)
Total Actual Outcome: +2
Total Fair Outcome: +3.5
*Odds accurate at time of writing